Tottenham Hotspur- Benfica (written 13/03)

 

We backed Benfica to win this competition last year at 25-1+ and they just came up short in the final, losing narrowly to Chelsea, we made money nonetheless, but it was disappointing. Many times we have spoken about the great respect that teams from the Iberian Peninsula show the competition and holding a commanding seven point lead in SuperLiga and with nearest challengers Sporting and Porto meeting on Sunday and Benfica not playing until Monday evening, they can afford to give this their undivided attention. Tottenham will be looking for a reaction, after losing so tamely at Stamford Bridge and will get  a couple of key players back tonight, but have the North London derby with Arsenal on Sunday and everyone at the club, management, players and supporters, knows where their priorities lie.
 

Notes about the visitors and the competition in general from 13 months ago are reproduced below and bear repeating. If they get through this round, I would probably only rate Juventus and possibly Napoli as stronger, but would never even consider the former at current odds and both ( Fiorentina and Porto respectively) are not guaranteed to progress even from this round, likewise Sevilla who have two derby games to battle through. I favour Benfica here over the two legs and their current outright quotes are 2-3 points bigger than I made them, as always in my 100% (no profit margin) book.
 

Benfica messed up in the Champions League against Olympiakos, but were unfortunate not to qualify from a group containing PSG with ten points and I think that and how close they came last season, will make them hungrier.  Odds are significantly lower than last year, but we are a round further on and their domestic position is much stronger, so I see the quote at least as good. Ten of the 14 who played against Chelsea in last year's final are in the squad this evening, big loss was Nemanja Matic who rejoined Chelsea, but they invested heavily (35m euros +) in some impressive young talent , including a trio of Serbian youngsters Ljubomir Fejsa ,Filip Djuricic and Lazar Markovic, who have all make the trip tonight. Djuricic was lined up by Newcastle as a replacement for Cabaye and Chelsea are said to be VERY keen on Markovic, who has done nothing but impress, if you saw their 2-0 defeat of Porto in January, you will remember him.
 

Prolific and star striker Óscar Cardozo has featured little this season after being plagued by back problems, but has returned to action recently and will be "fresh" for the remainder of the campaign. It is a sign of how many options they have, that he has been little missed, but few teams would not be improved by his addition.Jorge Jesus is a very good coach, his team are very disciplined and both press high and in midfield and Jesus is fantastic at spotting weak links in the opposition, which his players focus on . They break very quickly both from the back and midfield and are strong on both flanks, they have a lot of pace right through the team, even up front ,when Cardozo doesn't play, but other options when he does.
 

Two bets for me...1.25 units Benfica level ball 2.20 asian line/Ibramarket.