UEFA Europa League betting tip: Red Bull Salzburg - Olympique Marseille
May 03, 2018
UEFA Europa League: Red Bull Salzburg - Olympique Marseille
Notes ahead of the first leg ................
What a draw for both, avoiding Arsenal and Atletico and giving themselves a live chance to win a major european trophy. Marseille look like they might need the Champions League place that brings with it, which is further incentive. as is the fact that the final in being played in France. They are in great goalscoring form with 13 goals in their last three, but also conceding five ( twice in two) and it is easy to see goals in this with both teams offensive minded and far happier on the front foot.
I previewed Salzburg's quarter final second leg with Lazio where my notes included ............
Visitors won the first leg 4-2 and I expect them to come here with that lead and their weekend fixture firmly in mind. On Sunday in the televised evening fixture they "host" Roma, those derbies are always very hard fought and played with fierce intensity, but this year both clubs are tied in 3rd on 60 points with Internazionale just one point and place back, with only two Champions League spots still up for grabs. If that did not crank up the pressure enough, the light blue half of the Eternal City also had to sit home on Tuesday and watch with gritted teeth as Roma took Barcelona to the cleaners and qualified for the semi finals of Europe's premier club competition, when they were probably hoping for a humiliating defeat. The weekend fixture is hanging over this game like the sword of Damocles and if Lazio were to lose this , qualify and stay in as fresh a shape as possible for Sunday, everyone connected with the club would be delighted.
- Salzburg dominated periods of the first leg and felt they deserved (much) more, they have conceded just once in five home games in the competition beating Marseille and Sociedad and keeping Dortmund scoreless and this is a huge deal for them. With Lazio not needing to win and being "happy" with a narrow loss it only leads one way for me. The visitors withdrew key players from the action early and as soon as Simone Inzaghi felt it was safe to do so at Udinese last weekend with this and Roma in mind and I expect more of the same tonight. Eight players have featured in at least 28/31 league games and imagine if say 27 goal striker Ciro Immobile picked up an injury late in this with the tie effectively won and I expect the head coach to look to play very much with the bigger picture in focus, despite publicly claiming it to be all about Salzburg.
Salzburg progressed with a famous 4-1 win and few teams will fancy going to Austria without a good lead and even then,you are not entirely safe, RBS will surely again be looking for an away goal or two and I favour Marseille to win a wide open encounter via their limitless offensive talent all across midfield and up top (Thauvin, Ocampos, Payet, Germain, Sanson ).
2-0 was a great result for Marseille, but we have seen better teams with bigger leads come unstuck this season and Salzburg's big win over Lazio in Austria last month, turning the tie on it;s head, will give the host confidence, but that lack of an away goal feels like it might be the decisive factor. OM have been very strong in the competition on home soil (8-1-0 with a 23-6 goal difference) , but are 1-3-4 on the road with a series of low scoring encounters (4-7 goal difference), the only "over" game in that sequence came in Bilbao where they went with a two goal lead also, but my overriding memory of that fixture was just how awful Athletic were, far removed from what we have previously seen from them in the Europa League. Also, many of the other away ties were where OM did not really need a win/result, which of course, is the case tonight, but this time they face super motivated opposition. Salzburg are 5-2-0 at home in the competition, with a 14-2 GD and they have scored an average of 2.53 goals here in the league.
Huge motivation for both, for an Austrian team it would be a very big deal and the opportunity to become the first ever to win a European final and the first in 22 years to even reach one. They are already guaranteed a place in CL qualifying for next season and whilst not the same as a group stage spot that winning the EL would bring, it does relieve the pressure somewhat. No point in holding back now and I expect them to throw everything at the visitors, especially after the break, which is when they have tended to do most of their damage. Winning 2-1 in Dortmund with two second half goals and scoring all four against Lazio in 20 SH minutes after failing behind on the night.
Marseille are still battling with Monaco and Lyon for two Champions League spots, trail both by 1 and 2 points respectively with three rounds to play and are having to concentrate on both competitions, as they would not be favourite in the final of this. Therefore, things are not quite as cut and dried for them. Despite they frugal goal totals on the road in the EL, Ligue 1 away games have averaged 3.22 goals and they have scored twice very late at both Toulouse and Dijon (after 88th minute) in the last five weeks and are fully capable of playing some part in a second half shootout.
Both teams have played a lot of football this season, far more than they are used to, but Salzburg did have a lengthy mid season break and are probably the fresher and that might again help them late tonight.
The Austrian champions conceded unluckily early in the first leg, with a 'header' from Thauvin which came off his hand and were under a lot of pressure through the first 20 minutes , but grew in confidence after that and looked the better team for quite a while, they were denied what looked a stonewall penalty and big save (OM keeper made five in total), just before conceding a second against the run of play, the visitors then hit the woodwork late when it looked easier to score and if the game in Marseille had finished 2-2 it would not have been an unfair reflection.
I favour Salzburg to win tonight and, as already outlined, this getting very stretched late.
1.75 units Salzburg RB -0.75 ball 2.36 asian line/Sportmarket.
1.5 units 'over' goals at half time at the first goal line quoted at odds above 2.20 as long as we are still playing 11v 11.
Good Luck.
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