Hellas Verona -Genoa

 

 

The "hosts" get a boost today with the return of Goran Pandev and addition of new signings Suso and Luca Rigoni, but the veteran forward has only played some 631 minutes (90 mins only 4 times) in the last two seasons and has not scored  a goal in 20 months, the newbies might need time to make an impact and Suso, who is on loan from Milan, has had even less football than Pandev and is taking a long time to fulfill his early promise. I am not sure that these two are the immediate answers to a squad that did not score a league goal in December and now that Sampdoria have claimed that first win for coach Vincenzo Montella, they look the value today to continue their good derby record in recent seasons, losing just one of the last six meetings and seeking a third straight "away" win today. They are helped considerably by the suspension to Diego Perotti, Genoa have lost 9 of 10 starts when the fiesty wide man plays an hour or less, when he plays 60 mins plus they have lost just one in eight this season and that was away to league leaders Inter.

They look on the up, but were not asked as many questions as they might have expected in those last two starts and three of the goals against Palermo came after the visiting side were reduced to ten men. Having said that, they have scored eight goals in the last five halves of football and top scorer Leonardo Pavoletti (pictured) could hard be in better form with five of those and ten in just 939 minutes on the pitch this season and when he plays, their goal threat is HUGELY increased, options are further strengthened with the addition of right winger Alessio Cerci from Milan, who comes into the squad for the first time today. However, at the other end of the pitch, the absence of captain and central defender Nicolas Burdisso is worrying, as the visitors have conceded 14 goals in the last six starts he has missed, two or more in each, only 1.12 per game this season when he plays.
 

Verona have yet to win , but ahead of their last home start, a visit from Palermo I wrote ...........
 

If Hellas want to look for a glimmer of hope, it is that veteran striker Luca Toni who featured heavily in clubgowi notes at the end of last season , is now back playing and two of his three goals this season came in December and his team can hope that he goes on a similar run to early 2015, when he scored 16 goals over the final 20 games of the campaign. Toni will be 39 in May, but his two best seasons since 2007-08 were the last two and he definitely still knows where the back of the net is, if he is provided with the ammunition. There was talk this week that he would miss out today , after picking up an injury on the morning of the away game with Juventus on Wednesday, but he is in the squad  and the midweek fixture was one Verona could not win and if he can play an hour or so this week (hopefully more), better that it is today.

Last week, ahead of their away game with Roma I spoke about how that had played out ...........They lost that 1-0 and came up short in the goalscoring department, but it was not for want of trying and Hellas had thirty , that's 30 (!) attempts on goal, remember, this a team cast adrift at the foot of the table and in Serie A, where most games are not just that open, or anywhere close ! Safe to say they did indeed go for it and it is hard to see any other approach from them over the remainder of the season. Giampaolo Pazzini and Luca Toni ( see above) had half of those attempts and on another day, the duo alone would probably have scored 2-3 goals. Toni picked up another knock and misses out today, but Verona proved they can create chances and I expect them to get opportunities today against an underachieving Roma team who have been hugely disappointing this season and took the decision to ditch Rudi Garcia and replace him with former head coach Luciano Spalletti , who "invented" 4-6-0 and made Roma one of the most talked about teams of the "noughties". He has only had 3-4 days to work with the players, but will be desperate for the win and could hardly ask for a better opponent, but it will take longer to work his magic and the hosts have conceded 16 goals in their last ten, including three to Chievo and two at home to Atalanta and I think the visitors can score today.
 

They did indeed score and came away with a 1-1 draw, battling well after falling behind and whilst a point will not help much, they are clearly in a better sequence of play right now, it is just that the ball is not quite falling for them in front of goal, but the absence of Burdisso should help. Toni is still out for the hosts along with goalkeeper Pierluigi Gollini who has started regularly over the last two months and left back Samuel Souprayen.
 

Hosts will gamble and have been creating a lot of chances, they are a little weaker defensively, like the visitors who have suddenly found their goal touch.
 

I think we have two solid quotes today ............

 

1.5 units "over" 2.75 goals 2.33 asian line/Sportmarket.
 

1.5 units Hellas Verona to score two or more ( over 1.5 goals) at a general quote of 2.75-3.00.
 

Not much stats wise with those three games, but the Sassuolo-Bologna game in Serie A is interesting.
 

Bologna have  a +6 goal difference before the break, -11 in the second half, actually they are +6 in the first 15 minutes and -11 in the last 75 ! On the road +3 and -7 respectively.
 

Sassuolo are -1 at home in the first 15, but have not lost another 15 minure split, posting a  +5 goal difference. They have scored eight goals here between the 16th-45th minute, joint highest along with Napoli.