Local game between two fairly near neighbours (grounds are about 40km apart) who both came up from the Championship last season. This was quite a big rivalry in the 70's but dominated by the Hornets, who had not lost in 17 h2h games , until their last meeting and first trip to Lionel Road . The Bees took 4 points from the two games last season and totally dominated three of those four halves of football, the 45 minutes that Watford "bossed" came after Brentford were down to ten men. The Hornets finished 4 points ahead, but xP suggested that there was a 23 point swing on those numbers and that the Bees were 19 points better and comfortably the best team in the Championship. 

 

This season the West London "giants" have 17 points , four more than the Hertfordshire minnows and xP puts that advantage at 8-9 points . Brentford had suffered a dip in form , with just 4 points from 7 games and not playing up to previous levels in the last five, at least until last Sunday's trip to Leeds United where they drew 2-2, but played well , led until the last minute of injury time and dominated 75 minutes of the game. It was the best performance since mid October and came without main striker Ivan Toney who is self isolating with COVID (out for another five days at least) , he was replaced by Sergi Canos up top and now, he is too is missing, with a suspension. That means that it will be Bryan Mbeumo with Yoane Wissa (still said not to be fit enough to play anywhere near 90 minutes) or Marcus Forss. Wissa has two top flight goals, but has only played 98 minutes total across 7 games ( he would have played much more, but has only just returned from injury), Forss has not scored in 171 EPL minutes across five games, but the duo do have five goals between them in the League Cup, albeit against weak opposition. The Bees are also without Raya, Ajer, Zanka, Sorensen, DaSilva , all of whom have now been absent some time, but add in Toney and Canos and that is a lot of starters and we saw how quickly COVID spread through the Tottenham squad this week and no knowing if Toney is the only Brentford player affected.

 

Before we feel too sorry for the Bees, Watford also have a lengthy list of absences with eight squad members missing, including four who all played in their last two wins, Ben Foster, Nicolas Nkoulou, Adam Masina and Ismaila Sarr. Veteran goalkeeper Foster has been sorely missed and Watford have lost six in a row when he is absent and have conceded 2+ in 7/8 when he is missing. Sarr was top scorer last season with 13 goals and 10 assists in a low scoring team and has 5 goals to his name this season. Danny Rose is the only senior LB at the club , he has played just 12 top flight games in the last 17 months and his record is poor,with one win and nine defeats (1-2-9).

 

Two teams desperate for a win, but both hard hit by injury, a share of the spoils would not be terrible for either, but Brentford rarely settle for a point and Watford "do not do draws" with just 5 in 46 league starts (9.2%) and they have not kept a clean sheet all season, or in 25 top flight games.

 

 

Good luck !