Fluminense to enjoy another trip to Goiania ............
Jul 20, 2022
Serie A: Goiás- Fluminense
I wrote a not exactly glowing write up on Goiás ahead of an early season trip to fellow promoted side Botafogo.....
Both teams were promoted from Serie B last season, Botafogo as champions five points clear of Goias who were second, 65 points was a low total for a runner up in the second tier and the last team to finish in that position with as few points lost 22 games at the higher level and Goiás have been yo-yoing between the top two leagues for the last decade. It will all be about survival for them and like most promoted teams in Brazil, their home form, they are already bottom 4 and all three defeats have come on the road, will be key. They have conceded 11 goals and xGA says that should be over 16 , which is 2+ per game and they actually gave up 3.22 xGA in the sole away game they picked up any points in and in that, wait for it, they allowed 33 attempts on their goal and that is an unacceptable number ( they have given up an average of 14 in the three defeats). Their game is all about dropping deep and defensive solidarity, but I don't quite get that as they just appear to have been fortunate and they have ridden their luck a lot with a zonal marking set up which hasn't really worked.
Goiás are 14th, three points above the drop zone and I suspect they would have taken that pre season, but their xGD is -11.5 which is the worst in the division and they should have conceded 14 (!) more goals, with 7 coming on home soil. In their last home league start they beat highflying CAP 2-1, but lost xG by a goal, conceded twice as many chances as they created and rode their luck big time. In two subsequent starts they have failed to score, losing 3-0 at home to A-Go in the Copa do Brasil and drawing 0-0 away to basement club Juventude and they did not create a BC in either. They have now FTS in 5/7 starts.
Fluminense are 5th, within 5 points of leaders Palmeiras and just three adrift of second place, they are unbeaten in 8 games, posting 6 wins and scoring 2+ goals in 6 of the last 7, 11 total in the last four. They have won on 5/6 visits to Goiania, including 4-2 on their last trip and scored 2+ goals in 7/9 h2h games in this venue and also in 4/5 meetings as host.
2.25 units Fluminense to score "over" 1.5 goals @ 2.41, best alternative -0.5 ball asian line.
Good luck!
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