Serie A : Sassuolo- Atalanta
I have to say a few words about this. Sassuolo are "our" team in Italy and are in good shape, my notes written ahead of their recent win in Milan are reproduced at the foot of this email. They have subsequently followed up with a 1-0 defeat of Sampdoria and they could actually move level with Roma in 7th, at least for a few hours today, with the win. This is a team without a negative bone amongst them and they fear no one, so we can expect them to go for it. The same is also true of Atalanta and they are a joy to watch and have been statistically the best team in Italy over the last three seasons. This is a big game for them as failure to collect the win, could allow Juve and /or Napoli to move above them and possibly leave them outside the Champions League spots. Basically this should be fun to watch !
Good news for ATL is that they have won on their last four visits here and scored an incredible 16 goals ( 1-4/2-6/0-3/0-3) ! Also winning the last five as host (5-1/4-1/3-1.2-1/2-1), the second of which, the 4-1 win, was oddly when the "love" of Sassuolo started as I picked up on their stats that day which showed they created and missed SEVEN BC's.
Sassuolo's last 8 starts against teams above them in the table have seen both teams score in each, 32 goals total (4.0 per game) , with five defeats and just that sole win at an out of sorts Milan .
Odds do initially feel big about the home win, but best value this time in BTS, 4 goals plus and an Atlanta win.
1.75 units Atalanta to win and both teams to score 2.50 + ....2.60 Pinnacle.
1.5 units "over" 4.5 goals 3.58 asian line.
Good luck !
You should all know where we stand with Sassuolo but perhaps the best and easiest place to start with them was for their last trip to the San Siro which was just 14 days ago when they faced Internazionale ............
It feels like a long time again now, but early post lockdown we picked up on some fantastic stats for Sassuolo and were able to bet them week after week at big odds and milked their offensive prowess to a remarkable extent and a lot of profit. However, all good things have to end some time and either their form tailed off, or the opposition worked them out and their levels dropped a little around the turn of the year and ahead of a trip to Bergamo to play Atalanta in the first round of 2021 games I wrote .........
This was the fixture last season which started all the Sassuolo hoop la and made them newsletter darlings for so long. They caught my eye by creating 7 BC's on the road to Atalanta, whose own numbers were just sensational at the time and what happened after is well documented. All journeys have to begin with a single step and that heralded the start of a wonderful run and as you can see above, they have played almost as well as Juventus subsequently and did so playing thrilling offensive football. But all journeys have to end sometime too and I wrote recently about teams possibly finding Sassuolo out now and when I updated the Serie A stats, their ITB stats shocked me. They have tumbled to bottom 6 level after posting 27-70 for the last 5 starts, that is about as bad as it gets. 27 created is the third lowest, below only Crotone and Genoa and 70 conceded is 14 more than anyone else and 39 more than any of the other top 7 teams, 52 more than Atalanta ! It means the home side are a net +68 over Sassuolo in the last five games alone and that is a scary number.
Atalanta have produced Serie A best numbers over the last three seasons combined and have also thrilled us with their adventurous play, not only domestically, but in Europe where they have now become a serious player. Those Serie A numbers had dropped a little this season, but have started to pick up again now that they can concentrate on the league for the time being. Despite giving up those 7 BC's in this fixture back in June, they still won the game 4-1 and have taken the last four h2h games as hosts with Sassuolo scoring in each, in fact, the visitors have scored on their last 8 visits to Bergamo. How about more of the same, home win and BTS.
Even when they are not playing well Sassuolo seem to favour us and that played out well with Atalanta winning 5-1 .
The following weekend Sassuolo travelled to Turin to play Juventus and I updated with ...... they (Sassuolo) did win in midweek , but 2-1 at home to lowly Genoa and it was quite hard work. They remain in sixth and are decent and pose a goal threat, but not enough right now to stop the Old Lady from winning. 3-1 feels about right.
Final score was indeed 3-1 to Juve and Sassuolo are the team who have continued to give to us and with both hands !
They have not featured much in my notes subsequently, but they remain top 9, seem certain to finish 8th or 9th and appear to have refound that goal touch. Their last 10 starts have totalled 35 goals and includes a 2-2 draw with Roma and 3-3 stalemate with Napoli, scoring 2+ goals in 5 of their last 7 , they do not fear anyone and have no pressure on them in the league, so no reason why they will enter the San Siro feeling they have anything to lose and they can enjoy the occasion. They drew 3-3 here last season post lockdown and to be honest, something similar would not surprise me at all .
That finished 2-1 , but Sassuolo had 71% possession, won more total attempts, on target and ITB and completed an incredible 95% of a whopping 848 passes. I don't think you will ever see better passing numbers in Serie A and to put those up away to the team about to be crowned champions has to be very worthy of note .
Sassuolo have scored in 13/14 starts (which mirrors the ACM numbers) and in 10/11 on the road, they are pretty much guaranteed 8th placed now having won both starts since the Inter game as they are 7 points above Verona with this game in hand, yet 9 adrift of Roma. We can view that two ways, one that they have relatively little to play for, or secondly, that they are playing really well and are under absolutely no pressure .
Sometimes we have to just bite the bullet and be brave , Sassuolo have collected almost as many road points (24) as Milan have at home ( 26) and the hosts have also scored the fewest home goals amongst the top 7 and won just 3 times in 2021.
