Mexico- Venezuela
The Uruguay - Jamaica game is a friendly, with only pride to play for and I am going to pass on that , both teams have missed a hatful of chances between them, but have only managed one goal so far, however, even without Luis Suarez, the floodgates could open tonight if there is one early(ish) goal, now that the pressure is off.
Both Mexico and Venezuela have qualified for the last eight and they are playing for first place in Group C, a draw will be enough for El Tri, the South Americans will have to win . What is it worth ? The group winners will face the Group C runner up in Santa Clara on the West Coast with an extra days rest and also a further 24 hour break before the semi final. The runner up will play Argentina in Boston and then the US or Ecuador , who will have had two days longer to rest and prepare. I would suggest that the difference between finishing first or second in C is HUGE !
This match is being played in Houston which is about as close to half way between where these two played their second groups games as we could have got. The two met here in Houston in 2012 in a friendly with Mexico winning 3-1, they also hit the woodwork and missed a number of chances and came from behind early in the second half. They had huge support that day and nothing will change again today, Houston is at least 45% Hispanic and there are circa 10m people of Mexican descent in Texas.
We, or rather some of us have an outright position on Mexico (see foot of this email) and I feel chances of collecting on that will be much better if they win the group and hope that they see it that way and looking at the logistics of the alternative, surely they will. Ahead of their Matchday 2 game I wrote ..........
Let's begin with the Mexico game, this is being played in the Rose Bowl in Pasadena, a venue that have very positive memories for El Tri, they beat the US here 4-2 in the 2011 Gold Cup Final and 3-2 in the CONCACAF final last year, there were 93,000 + fans at both games. If any of you watched the first of those , I doubt you will have forgotten it, it was the first Mexican win in a competitive game on US soil for many years and was wildly celebrated. The support in the stadium was just unbelievable, of the 93k crowd, I would estimate that 75,000 + were Mexican, it was a sea of green on all four sides of the huge arena, the US led 2-0 and when those goals went in they were met by almost silence, which is odd when you are playing a final on home soil ! It was one way traffic after that, not just a win, but a great performance and one of the most famous Mexican victories ever. No one who was there will ever forget that day, five of the players from 2011, were in the squad last year and four played, all five took part in the group opener with Uruguay and nine played last year and also against La Celeste. I would also estimate that maybe 25-30,000 supporters will have been at all three games and it will be in familiar surroundings and a positive frame of mind that El Tri take to the field. There will be 80,000 + in the stadium tonight and if even 10,000 are hoping for an upset, that would surprise me.
Mexico will have just made the short trip across from Glendale, Jamaica will have had to make the four hour flight, across three time zones from Chicago.
I favour Mexico to win today, they are the stronger squad by far and can seal progression today and that will give them big options ahead of matchday 3 , but quotes of -1.75 goals to get odds of 2.10 +, make very little appeal. We do know that the Mexican squad is very fit and come on strong late and they have scored ten goals AFTER the 86th minute in nine starts on US soil, all since last July. Included in that sequence was a 3-1 win over Jamaica in Philadelphia just over ten months ago, no late goal there, Mexico were three up around the hour mark and then on automatic pilot. I would argue that they have improved a fair bit since then, especially defensively and they will be more at home and the Reggae Boys less so, on the West Coast. Andres Guardado will sit out for the favourites, who are going to go with an even more athletic and pace filled line up to combat the Jamaicans physical advantage according to head coach Osorio.
Those tactics worked in the last meeting, Mexico swarmed all over Jamaica from kick off and never game them a moments peace and eventually the pressure told with a series of errors and balls lost in key areas, it was a comprehensive win and we might see another, as the huge "home" support will be uging their team forward, but I have to feel the best time to back Mexico will be late in the game when they are usually at their strongest, Jamaica will surely be tiring, given the travel and are just not as used to this level of competition back to back, with a quick turnaround and this match does look well suited to "in play" betting, but I am well aware that for many of you, the kick off time is very far from ideal
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Venezuela will be delighted with the way things have gone so far, only a win will help them today and I suppose they will have to go for that, but also have to play with their quarter final in mind, they do not have the squad options the Mexicans have and will not want to pick up any injury/suspensions and I cannot see them overly chasing this game, with Argentina to face in just five days time, if they fall behind, especially knowing that they would then need at least two goals to make a difference.
Mexico will not have that option, many of their tens of thousand of supporters today will only get to see this one game and will be urging their team forward at every opportunity and rightly or wrongly, El Tri have an "obligation" to go for it and not switch off in any game on US soil, matches which in some ways are more inportant than those played in Mexico . They are unbeaten in 21 starts, have won their last 11 and have not lost to Venezuela since 1982, going 9-2-0 in the interim, with seven of those h2h wins coming by two or more goals .
1.5 units Mexico -1.25 goals 2.40 asian line /Sportmarket...............they only need a draw, but I am 100% certain they are the better team and I cannot see what motivation Venezuela will have if they fall behind. They will have 1-2 small advantages over Argentina in the quarters and need them, but pointlessly chasing a lost cause could negate most of those.
Good Luck.
Copa America outright: (written June 3rd)
The competition will be played outside South America for the first time, with hosts USA and five other CONCACAF teams, padding out the ten from CONMEBOL, to give us four groups of four and Centenario, the 100th anniversary of Copa. Unlike the usual format, it is a straight top two in each to qualify for the quarter finals, some nations and players seem very excited by the tournament, others less so, Neymar is saving himself for the Olympics and skipping this, Brazil arrive with only 8 of their 23 man squad having more than nine international caps, Argentina have double that number. With Messi, Higuain, Di Maria, Aguero, Mascherano all in the US they have a talent and experience laded squad and in terms of personnel, look worthy favourites to win the competition. They are certainly overdue, having not won since 1993, despite appearing in three finals and hosting in 2011 when they were hugely disappointing (beating only Costa Rica in four starts), since their last win in the competition, La Albiceleste have had to watch their biggest rivals Brazil (4) and Uruguay (2) claim six titles between them. I can understand their motivation and we can all admire the quality in their squad, but they love to make things difficult for themselves and are too rarely the sum of all their parts !
I am not going to get involved in discussing many teams in depth today, as I want to leave that for a match by match basis, but a couple of teams have not been done too many favours by the schedule of a tournament played across three time zones and at venues 5,000 km apart. There is not a lot of depth in the Argentina group you might argue, with Chile the other "name", but the section being made up by Bolivia and Panama, but I doubt there will be too many easy games here and after starting on the West Coast in the home of the 49ers where they play Chile, La Albiceleste make the long old trek to Chicago and then back to Seattle for the final group game. We speak many times in MLS football about teams making the W-E or E-W trip on quick turnaround and about how difficult that is, Argentina have to go West-East-West and if they were to finish second in the group, they would then have to go back East to play in Boston, it is tough already, that would be truly gruelling.
I don't care how much modern footballers travel, or in what comfort, that will take a toll somewhere along the line. Other countries have been dealt a much fairer hand, for example, Panama in the same group will play all three group games in the East (Orlando, Chicago and Philly), they are the potential surprise package in this section, played well in the CONCACAF Gold Cup last year, where they were not beaten in six matches inside 90 minutes, took third place from hosts US and were "robbed" by Mexico in the semis, there is no need to go into details, "robbed" explains almost everything and a red card and two penalties, pretty much the rest !
16 of the squad from the Gold Cup are in this Panama squad, so huge experience of playing in the US and two of the group were snapped up by MLS teams subsequently and five starting players earn, or have earned, their living in America. Ahead of that tournament opening game I wrote ...........
This will be the 13th Gold Cup, the US and Mexico have won 11 of the previous 12 between them and contested five finals including three of the last four and that is what the organisers are hoping for again this year, hence the very favourable draw for that to come about. However, Panama did make the final in 2013 , had an earlier runner up place to their name and made the semis in 2011 and quite rightly see themselves as a major contender.Los Canaleros played two matches in build up with Ecuador and appear well prepared for this event, the same cannot be said for the Haitians who have had just a single game ( 2-2 draw with China) in the last eight months and are going to "bond" as they go along, which was kind of their game plan in 2013 when they lost their opener to Honduras 2-0. They do have a little talent in the team, notably Jeff Louis of Standard Liege, who long term readers might recall I was very keen on whilst he was at Nancy, but they look to match up poorly to me against the very athletic and experienced Panama squad. Ten of their players have 50 + caps and they have three very prolific frontmen in Gabriel Torres, Luis Tejada and especially Blas Perez who is going to be very much at home here with the FC Dallas striker playing in his home stadium tonight. He is extremely strong and good in the air and has a bit of a reputation for being physical and if Panama can isolate him against one or two of the smaller defenders and there are several, that could produce big dividends.
No really big names in the Los Canaleros squad, but a very together group and we saw how far that took them a year ago and Costa Rica (another unbeaten CONCACAF team) at the 2014 World Cup. We know how good Chile and Argentina are and both made the last Copa final, but the holders are not hosting this time round, have beaten only Venezuela in six starts and lost their last two to Jamaica ( on home soil) and Mexico and are not the same team on the road. Bolivia have lost 9 of their last 10 starts, conceded at least two goals in each at the rate of 3.2 per game and are notoriously bad travellers. If there is to be an upset, I would suggest that Panama are the more likely to provide it, they open against Bolivia and with the big two meeting on the same day, it is easy to see current offers of 7.0-8.0 for them to qualify from Group D quickly tumbling. If you can find those quotes, you could try something small (1 unit ?), if not, I think the outright bet is better and far easier to play................
Another team who do have to travel West-East-West is Uruguay, who will also start the tournament without Luis Suarez, that is a tough schedule as we have already discussed and I think there is real value on region bigwigs Mexico to do well and go deep in the tournament and I do expect El Tri to win this section. Along with the US they are far and away the biggest and strongest CONCACAF team and for them, playing in Glendale, Pasadena and Houston are about as close to home games as you could get and it would not be possible to find any venues big enough to hold all the Mexican supporters who would wish to attend. They are a VERY strong group who have improved out of all recognition since winning the Gold Cup 12 months ago and they have won all six starts under head coach Juan Carlos Osario , without conceding a single goal, including a 1-0 defeat of Chile this week. There were 67,000 for that friendly in San Diego, they were not there to watch Chile and that is the level of support that Mexico will enjoy and cities that they are playing in will be taken over for 2-3 days by tens of thousands of supporters, whether they have a ticket for the game or not ! Osario has coached domestically in MLS, Colombia, Mexico and Brazil and has huge knowledge of CONMEBOL as well as CONCACAF football. His squad is talented, they have two prolific front men in Javier Hernandez and Oribe Peralta , the backline is very solid and the midfield compares very favourable with even the big name teams in this tournament, Andres Guardado, Jesus Corona, Raul Jimenez and Hector Herrera are already well know and 20 yo Hirving Lozano is a (super)star in waiting, already being courted by many of the biggest European clubs.
El Tri are a VERY good tournament team, they have made it past the group stage of the last nine World Cups they have qualified for, are a Confederations Cup winner, have ten Gold Cups and an Olympic title to their name and an extremely solid record in the Copa. They have been invited to play nine times, in the last two they had to focus on the Gold Cup and sent the B team to Chile last year, if we take those out of the equation, in seven attempts they have posted two quarter final, three 3rd place and two runner up finishes and that is about as consistent as possible, especially for a team playing outside their own continent. This time round, they are all but playing on home soil and often, in the US, it feels like even more of an advantage for them. They are in a group with Uruguay, Jamaica and Venezuela and should qualify with a degree of comfort and would then meet one of the top two from the Arg/Chile/Panama/Bolivia section, but we have already discussed how that might not work out exactly as planned and even if they have to face Messi and co, which I accept is worst case scenario, there is a good chance that El Tri will be the team in much better shape by that stage.
1.75 units Mexico to win outright 11.0-12.0 general quote.
I am reasonably pleased with my outright notes, I almost never suggest you should bet something, that is of course, always up to you, but I was VERY big on Uruguay winning Copa at good odds in 2011 (it was only the tournament before last !) and feel similarly confident this time round and suggest that you should give a bet on Mexico earnest consideration.
