Bundesliga updated stats and preview

Nov 20, 2021

Pd = games played.

Pts= points.

GD= goal difference, For-Against.

XP= expected points.

XGD= expected goal difference.....xGF-xGA.

BC's = Big scoring chances, created-conceded.

ITB = Chances created -conceded inside the box.

BC's L4 = Big scoring chances, last 4 games.

ITB L4= ITB attempts, last 4 games.

Goal of the month competitions usually feature several long range contenders and we always remember those 30 yard bullets into the top corner of the net, but only 12.87% of Premier League goals over the last three seasons have been scored from outside the box , good coaches are known to encourage players to look for better scoring opportunities, hence why we set great store by the ITB numbers, which you are unlikely to see in this format anywhere else.

I think the real value of ITB might be once the numbers start to turn, as that improvement in performance may not always be reflected immediately in results, so we will have an edge "knowing" when teams are starting to sort out those issues, OR falling into bad habits, which is just as valuable. I like expected goals/points numbers too, but IMO, it is easier to see the direction teams are heading with ITB if only because they are more numerically and the swings quicker to pick up on. But in actual fact, I also think they highlight the flow of the games and the superiority, or failings of teams, better.

I have ditched the experiment with "on target attempts", they are a totally useless stat on their own and I really do not know what I was thinking of, beyond putting them as point of reference and showing how inferior they are to ITB.

It is hard to know where to start, so much to look at and so much which offers real potential in the next few weeks ! It is the numbers for the recent games that are always going to provide the most interest, so we can look at a few of those.

Bayern are top of the pile in both BC's and ITB and by a considerable margin which is no surprise, if we factor in that all four games were against top 10 opponents it becomes even more impressive and the Bavarian giants remain an unstoppable offensive force. The Dortmund numbers are average at best for a club of their standing and Leverkusen's are just downright poor, they are 5th worst for net BC's and joint bottom for net ITB attempts . Amongst the top 8 teams we have to give a very honourable mention to Mainz, who come in at #3 for BC's and #2 for ITB.

It is perhaps the bottom 7 teams who provide the most interest, Frankfurt and Stuttgart are both bottom five and that will surprise many after respective 5th and 9th place finishes in 20/21 and EF narrowly missing out on a Champions League place, but not only are they struggling, numbers are nose diving for the pair. Frankfurt are a Bundesliga worst -15 for BC's and 3rd worst -18 for ITB attempts, Stuttgart and -10 (ranked 17th) for BC and joint worst on -22 for ITB and offensive they have been dire, zero BC attempts and 22 ITB, this for the team who were top scorers outside the top 8 last season. The pair also come in at bottom four for xP.

Basement club Furth are better than four teams for xP and for their last four starts were +1 for BC's (one of only 8 teams with positive numbers) and zero for ITB (T9th best) and they played what I am going to call three strong teams in that sequence.

Bochum look very interesting, they opened 1-1-5 and struggled with their return to the Bundesliga after 11 years in the second tier, but they were promoted with a decent number of points (67) which has tended to be a good indication of ability and results and performances have improved big time. They have won 3/4 with three clean sheets and are +9 for BC's (#2) and +3 for ITB (8th) , they were a net -2.86 and -4.86 per game respectively prior to that and it is a massive turnaround.

Arminia Bielefeld- Wolfsburg

Last month I noted ...............

Wolfsburg seem to have hit a wall and to be struggling , possibly not helped by a first Champions League appearance in six years. They are now winless in seven and have had a very tough October losing all three starts and conceding 8 goals. They first lost 3-1 at home to BMG and in the last week, 2-0 away to Union Berlin and 3-1 in Salzburg in midweek where some of their defending was shambolic and they created very little. It is a lot of travel and disruption to training , with limited time to work on anything much and there looks like plenty that needs work, or to prepare for today. I also didn't like some of the body language or vibes coming from head coach Mark Van Bommel, like sitting down immediately after his team fell behind in midweek,instead of trying to lift his team.

Shortly after that they sacked Van Bommel, after just 13 games in charge and replaced him with Florian Kohfeldt, he has won both league games since taking over and also posted a CL win over RB Salzburg, so is a perfect 3/3. They are still right in contention for a CL knockout stage place ,back up to 4th in the Bundesliga and if Kohfeldt has not yet put the Wolves back on track, he has certainly steadied the ship and the numbers under him are much improved .

I opposed Bielefeld in their last home start when they hosted Mainz and my notes included ......The hosts are 17th, ranked 18th and last for xP and 13 places behind Mainz who look superior in all departments, Bielfeld are also winless in 10 starts against Bundesliga opposition.

Mainz won 2-1 and were 6-0 for BC's and 12-5 ITB so the result flattered Arminia, but they did win their only subsequent start, a 1-0 defeat of the aforementioned Stuttgart, which says more about them than any sudden upturn for Bielefeld.

We can make a strong case for Bielefeld being the worst team in the top flight and they have played at bottom 2 level statistically since the start of last season.

2.25 units Wolfsburg -0.75 ball asian line.

Good luck !