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Bundesliga 23/24:

 
2023/24 Overall Home Away
P W D L F A Gdf Pts Form P W D L F A P W D L F A
  1   Bayer Leverkusen 11 10 1 0 34 10 +24 31 WWWW 6 6 0 0 21 5 5 4 1 0 13 5
  2   Bayern München 11 9 2 0 42 9 +33 29 WWWW 6 5 1 0 27 5 5 4 1 0 15 4
  3   VfB Stuttgart 11 8 0 3 29 14 +15 24 WLLW 6 5 0 1 20 6 5 3 0 2 9 8
  4   RB Leipzig 11 7 2 2 28 10 +18 23 WLWW 6 4 2 0 19 4 5 3 0 2 9 6
  5   Borussia Dortmund 11 6 3 2 21 17 +4 21 LLXW 6 4 1 1 9 8 5 2 2 1 12 9
  6   TSG Hoffenheim 11 6 1 4 23 20 +3 19 XLWL 5 1 0 4 8 12 6 5 1 0 15 8
  7   Eintracht Frankfurt 11 4 6 1 17 11 +6 18 XWXW 5 2 3 0 7 4 6 2 3 1 10 7
  8   SC Freiburg 11 4 2 5 14 22 -8 14 LXLW 5 3 1 1 10 8 6 1 1 4 4 14
  9   Borussia Mönchengladbach 11 3 4 4 23 23 +0 13 WXWL 6 2 1 3 9 9 5 1 3 1 14 14
  10   FC Augsburg 11 3 4 4 20 23 -3 13 XXWW 6 2 3 1 13 12 5 1 1 3 7 11
  11   VfL Wolfsburg 11 4 1 6 15 20 -5 13 LXLL 5 3 1 1 9 5 6 1 0 5 6 15
  12   SV Werder Bremen 11 3 2 6 18 22 -4 11 XXWL 6 3 1 2 12 10 5 0 1 4 6 12
  13   1.FC Heidenheim 11 3 1 7 17 26 -9 10 LWLL 5 3 0 2 11 10 6 0 1 5 6 16
  14   VfL Bochum 11 1 6 4 11 25 -14 9 XWXL 5 0 4 1 6 8 6 1 2 3 5 17
  15   SV Darmstadt 98 11 2 2 7 14 32 -18 8 OLLL 6 1 2 3 10 14 5 1 0 4 4 18
  16   FSV Mainz 05 11 1 4 6 11 24 -13 7 OWXL 5 1 1 3 5 10 6 0 3 3 6 14
  17   1.FC Köln 11 1 3 7 9 23 -14 6 XXLW 5 1 1 3 6 9 6 0 2 4 3 14
  18   1.FC Union Berlin 11 2 0 9 11 26 -15 6 LLLL 5 1 0 4 4 12 6 1 0 5 7 14
This looks set to be a classic Bundesliga season, with so many teams looking to thrill and entertain and not just the usual suspects, games are averaging 3.60 goals through eleven rounds which is pretty much 0.5 more than any other season in recent history. 
 
 
Bayer Leverkusen
 
Last season 50 pts, xP 53.
 
This season xGD +12, xP 23, net BC's +23, net ITB +52 .
 
When Xabi Alonso took charge in October 2022 Leverkusen were 17th, they played at top 3 level for the rest of the campaign and finished 6th, they also reached the Europa League semi finals where they were unfortunate to lose to Roma. The head coach was immediately on the short list of any top team looking for a head coach, but the Spaniard announced he was staying early and despite selling Moussa Diaby to Villa for a big fee, all that and more was spent on strengthening the squad as a whole and most of the targets Alonso had wanted, like Granit Xhaka, were secured and this feels like a club and coach singing from the same hymn book.
 
They have scored an incredible 67 goals in their last 19 starts ( 4+ goals in nine of those, 3+ in 14) and have played with the same relentless offensive intent in each, regardless of opponent or competition. We are five rounds away from the Christmas break and becoming Wintermeister , which is a big thing in the Bundesliga, will surely be target #1 and they feel like genuine title contenders.
 
Bayern Munich
 
Last season 71 pts, xP 73.
 
This season xGD +23, xP 28, net BC's +41, net ITB +96 .
 
VfB Stuttgart
 
Last season 33 pts, xP 51. 16th , but joint 5th for xP.
 
This season xGD +15, xP 26, net BC's +25, net ITB +47 .
 
Stuttgart were clearly in a false position last season and have proved that through 11 games and they play with great joy under Sebastian Hoeness, who was the first coach to win Germany's third tier with a reserve team, his record at Hoffenheim also looks great with hindsight and having saved Stuttgart last season, he has completed the about turn and got them playing with gay abandon in possession. He took over a team staring relegation in the face and immediately got them playing at top three level (16-4-5 in his 25 games in charge, 2.08 points per game) and with offensive freedom ( 2.36 goals pg).
 
The top three are the three best teams in the Bundesliga on all available metrics and are there on merit.
 
RB Leipzig
 
Last season 66 pts, xP 69.
 
This season xGD +6, xP 18, net BC's +13, net ITB +25 .
 
Borussia Dortmund
 
Last season 71 pts, xP 66. Collected a Bundesliga high 40 points over the second half of the season.
 
This season xGD +1, xP 17, net BC's +5, net ITB -2 .
 
Dortmund will be hoping for another strong second half of the season and they might well need it! Some big holes in their numbers and they look to be struggling with the Champions League (they are in a very competitive and tough group) and Bundesliga schedule. They have 8 games to play in 24 days in the build up to Christmas and at least six of those look very tricky fixtures with a lot at stake. Take care!
 
TSG Hoffenheim
 
Last season 36 pts, xP 44.
 
This season xGD -2, xP 14, net BC's +1, net ITB -35.
 
Hoffenheim were much better than 36 points indicated last season, but looking at their numbers through 11 games , it seems the reverse is true this season and they have overperformed to be sixth and good teams do not lose 4/5 home starts. Of course, you can argue that bad teams do not win 5/6 on the road in the Bundesliga too, but they have ridden their luck at times in those. They should have finished mid-table last season and that is where they ought to end up after 34 games this time around.
 
Eintracht Frankfurt
 
Last season 50 pts, xP 51.
 
This season xGD +1, xP 17, net BC's +4, net ITB +8 .
 
SC Freiburg
 
Last season 59 pts, xP 48.
 
This season xGD -2, xP 14, net BC's +5, net ITB -3.
 
There appears to have been some levelling off after Freiburg overachieved to the level of 11 points last season.
 
Borussia MG
 
Last season 43pts, xP 43.
 
This season xGD -1, xP 15, net BC's +6, net ITB -8 .
 
FC Augsburg
 
Last season 34 pts, xP 30.
 
This season xGD -1, xP 15, net BC's -1, net ITB -10.
 
Augsburg are a well run club and have remained in the Bundesliga since being promoted to the top flight for the first time in their history in 2011-12 , which is no mean achievement given their budget . Across those 12 seasons they finished 12th-15th on ten occasions, 8th and 5th in 13/14 and 14/15 respectively, making their European debut in the latter. They have had a clearly defined tough to beat , hard working style and have only once scored more than 45 goals since the 14/15 campaign and the season that they did, they conceded a veritable flood of goals themselves (71!) and soon put that experiment to bed! 
 
However, this season they have scored 20 , which puts them on course for 62 and since Jens Thorup arrived as head coach, they are unbeaten in four games with 8 points and 10 goals. With the appointment of a new sporting director and a head of development in the summer it appears the normal status quo is no longer good enough and they are looking to kick on. US billionaire sports investor David Blitzer owns a large share of Augsburg, along with 9-10 other football teams and a team in each of the five US Sports leagues, he is not the sort to "flash the cash", but the club is already on a very stable footing and any increase in funding is very likely to be well spent. A club to continue to watch.
 
VfL Wolfsburg
 
Last season 49 pts, xP 47.
 
This season xGD -2, xP 14, net BC's -4, net ITB -14.
 
Lower mid table looks about right, but a note of caution in that they have "lost" each of their last five starts for both BC's and ITB attempts.
 
Werder Bremen
 
Last season 36 pts, xP 37. Picked up the fewest second half of the season points (15).
 
This season xGD -3, xP 12, net BC's 0, net ITB -30 .
 
1.FC Heidenheim
 
Last season promoted.
 
This season xGD -13, xP 7net BC's -29net ITB -43 .
 
Heidenheim are playing in their first ever Bundesliga season and seem to be having fun, they have entertained and must be pleased with 13th place and 10 points, but look at those numbers! They have won three games but were battered in two, maybe two and a half of those and they will do very well to survive, but statistically, it seems unlikely!
 
VfL Bochum
 
Last season 35 pts, xP 33.
 
This season xGD -5 , xP 14, net BC's -8, net ITB -27 .
 
Not too much to get excited about looking at any of the above, but within those numbers, the last three game performances have been very good, a net +11 BC's and +13 ITB to go along with five points and five goals and they look at least on a par right now with any of the other bottom six teams and possibly superior.
 
SC Darmstadt 98
 
Last season promoted.
 
This season xGD -10, xP 10, net BC's -30, net ITB -25 .
 
FSV Mainz 05
 
Last season 46 pts, xP 47.
 
This season xGD -5, xP 12, net BC's -18 , net ITB -3 .
 
Mainz collected the most second half of the season points of any team outside the top 6 in 22/23 and will be looking for more of the same. That might well be on the cards looking at their numbers which suggest they should be 5+ points better off already. Also, they played pretty well in games with Bayern, Leipzig and Stuttgart and have kept back to back clean sheets (4 points) in the two games since Bo Svensson was dismissed as head coach. Whether the interim head coach keeps the role ( he has coached in the EPL) or a new appointment is made , it looks a good job as the only way is up and Mainz have finished top 10 in each of the last two seasons.
 
1.FC Koln
 
Last season 42 pts, xP 50.
 
This season xGD -8, xP 10, net BC's -22, net ITB -31 .
 
1.FC Union Berlin
 
Last season 62 points, xP 43.
 
This season xGD -4xP 12net BC's -6net ITB +4 .
 
I cannot count how many times I have said that I am lost in admiration for how well run Union are as a club . They were promoted to the Bundesliga for the first time ever in 2019, in the four subsequent campaigns they have finished 11-7-5-4 improving each year on a tiny budget and reaching the Champions League last season. It is an incredible achievement /story. However, here they sit bottom of the Bundesliga, out of the domestic cup, unable to qualify from their CL group after 4 games and with a record of 0-1-13 in their last 13 starts (failing to score in 10)! They are not the first team to go too far too fast and sometimes you should be careful what you wish for. The fall from grace feels like it has been total, but looking for positives, they can forget about the CL now and should do similar with regard to Europa League qualification, try to enjoy their home game with Real Madrid for the big occasion it is and leave it at that and it is still early in the season, they are "only" 2 points from safety and their numbers are mid table level. If they can re-find some confidence ,but as I am fond of saying it is easy to take for granted when you have it, but a bugger to find once lost(!), then they can start to edge up the table. They appear to have parted ways with head coach Urs Fischer this morning which was doubtless a tough decision after what he and the club achieved but feels a correct one and possibly another "good" job to walk into, as it feels the only way is up.
 

clubgowi Glossary:

 
ITB= inside the box attempts, Goal of the month competitions usually feature several long range contenders and we always remember those 30 yard bullets into the top corner, but only 12.87% of Premier League goals over the last three seasons have been scored from outside the box , good coaches are known to encourage players to look for better scoring opportunities and it is usually only supporters urging "shoooooot" everytime the goal is within sight, even if there are 20 players between ball and net .
 
XG= expected goals.
XGF= expected goals for.
XGA = expected goals against.
XGD = expected goal difference.
XP = expected points.
BC = big scoring chance.
 
Good luck!
Bundesliga 23/24:
 
2023/24 Overall Home Away
P W D L F A Gdf Pts Form P W D L F A P W D L F A
  1   Bayer Leverkusen 11 10 1 0 34 10 +24 31 WWWW 6 6 0 0 21 5 5 4 1 0 13 5
  2   Bayern München 11 9 2 0 42 9 +33 29 WWWW 6 5 1 0 27 5 5 4 1 0 15 4
  3   VfB Stuttgart 11 8 0 3 29 14 +15 24 WLLW 6 5 0 1 20 6 5 3 0 2 9 8
  4   RB Leipzig 11 7 2 2 28 10 +18 23 WLWW 6 4 2 0 19 4 5 3 0 2 9 6
  5   Borussia Dortmund 11 6 3 2 21 17 +4 21 LLXW 6 4 1 1 9 8 5 2 2 1 12 9
  6   TSG Hoffenheim 11 6 1 4 23 20 +3 19 XLWL 5 1 0 4 8 12 6 5 1 0 15 8
  7   Eintracht Frankfurt 11 4 6 1 17 11 +6 18 XWXW 5 2 3 0 7 4 6 2 3 1 10 7
  8   SC Freiburg 11 4 2 5 14 22 -8 14 LXLW 5 3 1 1 10 8 6 1 1 4 4 14
  9   Borussia Mönchengladbach 11 3 4 4 23 23 +0 13 WXWL 6 2 1 3 9 9 5 1 3 1 14 14
  10   FC Augsburg 11 3 4 4 20 23 -3 13 XXWW 6 2 3 1 13 12 5 1 1 3 7 11
  11   VfL Wolfsburg 11 4 1 6 15 20 -5 13 LXLL 5 3 1 1 9 5 6 1 0 5 6 15
  12   SV Werder Bremen 11 3 2 6 18 22 -4 11 XXWL 6 3 1 2 12 10 5 0 1 4 6 12
  13   1.FC Heidenheim 11 3 1 7 17 26 -9 10 LWLL 5 3 0 2 11 10 6 0 1 5 6 16
  14   VfL Bochum 11 1 6 4 11 25 -14 9 XWXL 5 0 4 1 6 8 6 1 2 3 5 17
  15   SV Darmstadt 98 11 2 2 7 14 32 -18 8 OLLL 6 1 2 3 10 14 5 1 0 4 4 18
  16   FSV Mainz 05 11 1 4 6 11 24 -13 7 OWXL 5 1 1 3 5 10 6 0 3 3 6 14
  17   1.FC Köln 11 1 3 7 9 23 -14 6 XXLW 5 1 1 3 6 9 6 0 2 4 3 14
  18   1.FC Union Berlin 11 2 0 9 11 26 -15 6 LLLL 5 1 0 4 4 12 6 1 0 5 7 14
This looks set to be a classic Bundesliga season, with so many teams looking to thrill and entertain and not just the usual suspects, games are averaging 3.60 goals through eleven rounds which is pretty much 0.5 more than any other season in recent history. 
 
 
Bayer Leverkusen
 
Last season 50 pts, xP 53.
 
This season xGD +12, xP 23, net BC's +23, net ITB +52 .
 
When Xabi Alonso took charge in October 2022 Leverkusen were 17th, they played at top 3 level for the rest of the campaign and finished 6th, they also reached the Europa League semi finals where they were unfortunate to lose to Roma. The head coach was immediately on the short list of any top team looking for a head coach, but the Spaniard announced he was staying early and despite selling Moussa Diaby to Villa for a big fee, all that and more was spent on strengthening the squad as a whole and most of the targets Alonso had wanted, like Granit Xhaka, were secured and this feels like a club and coach singing from the same hymn book.
 
They have scored an incredible 67 goals in their last 19 starts ( 4+ goals in nine of those, 3+ in 14) and have played with the same relentless offensive intent in each, regardless of opponent or competition. We are five rounds away from the Christmas break and becoming Wintermeister , which is a big thing in the Bundesliga, will surely be target #1 and they feel like genuine title contenders.
 
Bayern Munich
 
Last season 71 pts, xP 73.
 
This season xGD +23, xP 28, net BC's +41, net ITB +96 .
 
VfB Stuttgart
 
Last season 33 pts, xP 51. 16th , but joint 5th for xP.
 
This season xGD +15, xP 26, net BC's +25, net ITB +47 .
 
Stuttgart were clearly in a false position last season and have proved that through 11 games and they play with great joy under Sebastian Hoeness, who was the first coach to win Germany's third tier with a reserve team, his record at Hoffenheim also looks great with hindsight and having saved Stuttgart last season, he has completed the about turn and got them playing with gay abandon in possession. He took over a team staring relegation in the face and immediately got them playing at top three level (16-4-5 in his 25 games in charge, 2.08 points per game) and with offensive freedom ( 2.36 goals pg).
 
The top three are the three best teams in the Bundesliga on all available metrics and are there on merit.
 
RB Leipzig
 
Last season 66 pts, xP 69.
 
This season xGD +6, xP 18, net BC's +13, net ITB +25 .
 
Borussia Dortmund
 
Last season 71 pts, xP 66. Collected a Bundesliga high 40 points over the second half of the season.
 
This season xGD +1, xP 17, net BC's +5, net ITB -2 .
 
Dortmund will be hoping for another strong second half of the season and they might well need it! Some big holes in their numbers and they look to be struggling with the Champions League (they are in a very competitive and tough group) and Bundesliga schedule. They have 8 games to play in 24 days in the build up to Christmas and at least six of those look very tricky fixtures with a lot at stake. Take care!
 
TSG Hoffenheim
 
Last season 36 pts, xP 44.
 
This season xGD -2, xP 14, net BC's +1, net ITB -35.
 
Hoffenheim were much better than 36 points indicated last season, but looking at their numbers through 11 games , it seems the reverse is true this season and they have overperformed to be sixth and good teams do not lose 4/5 home starts. Of course, you can argue that bad teams do not win 5/6 on the road in the Bundesliga too, but they have ridden their luck at times in those. They should have finished mid-table last season and that is where they ought to end up after 34 games this time around.
 
Eintracht Frankfurt
 
Last season 50 pts, xP 51.
 
This season xGD +1, xP 17, net BC's +4, net ITB +8 .
 
SC Freiburg
 
Last season 59 pts, xP 48.
 
This season xGD -2, xP 14, net BC's +5, net ITB -3.
 
There appears to have been some levelling off after Freiburg overachieved to the level of 11 points last season.
 
Borussia MG
 
Last season 43pts, xP 43.
 
This season xGD -1, xP 15, net BC's +6, net ITB -8 .
 
FC Augsburg
 
Last season 34 pts, xP 30.
 
This season xGD -1, xP 15, net BC's -1, net ITB -10.
 
Augsburg are a well run club and have remained in the Bundesliga since being promoted to the top flight for the first time in their history in 2011-12 , which is no mean achievement given their budget . Across those 12 seasons they finished 12th-15th on ten occasions, 8th and 5th in 13/14 and 14/15 respectively, making their European debut in the latter. They have had a clearly defined tough to beat , hard working style and have only once scored more than 45 goals since the 14/15 campaign and the season that they did, they conceded a veritable flood of goals themselves (71!) and soon put that experiment to bed! 
 
However, this season they have scored 20 , which puts them on course for 62 and since Jens Thorup arrived as head coach, they are unbeaten in four games with 8 points and 10 goals. With the appointment of a new sporting director and a head of development in the summer it appears the normal status quo is no longer good enough and they are looking to kick on. US billionaire sports investor David Blitzer owns a large share of Augsburg, along with 9-10 other football teams and a team in each of the five US Sports leagues, he is not the sort to "flash the cash", but the club is already on a very stable footing and any increase in funding is very likely to be well spent. A club to continue to watch.
 
VfL Wolfsburg
 
Last season 49 pts, xP 47.
 
This season xGD -2, xP 14, net BC's -4, net ITB -14.
 
Lower mid table looks about right, but a note of caution in that they have "lost" each of their last five starts for both BC's and ITB attempts.
 
Werder Bremen
 
Last season 36 pts, xP 37. Picked up the fewest second half of the season points (15).
 
This season xGD -3, xP 12, net BC's 0, net ITB -30 .
 
1.FC Heidenheim
 
Last season promoted.
 
This season xGD -13, xP 7net BC's -29net ITB -43 .
 
Heidenheim are playing in their first ever Bundesliga season and seem to be having fun, they have entertained and must be pleased with 13th place and 10 points, but look at those numbers! They have won three games but were battered in two, maybe two and a half of those and they will do very well to survive, but statistically, it seems unlikely!
 
VfL Bochum
 
Last season 35 pts, xP 33.
 
This season xGD -5 , xP 14, net BC's -8, net ITB -27 .
 
Not too much to get excited about looking at any of the above, but within those numbers, the last three game performances have been very good, a net +11 BC's and +13 ITB to go along with five points and five goals and they look at least on a par right now with any of the other bottom six teams and possibly superior.
 
SC Darmstadt 98
 
Last season promoted.
 
This season xGD -10, xP 10, net BC's -30, net ITB -25 .
 
FSV Mainz 05
 
Last season 46 pts, xP 47.
 
This season xGD -5, xP 12, net BC's -18 , net ITB -3 .
 
Mainz collected the most second half of the season points of any team outside the top 6 in 22/23 and will be looking for more of the same. That might well be on the cards looking at their numbers which suggest they should be 5+ points better off already. Also, they played pretty well in games with Bayern, Leipzig and Stuttgart and have kept back to back clean sheets (4 points) in the two games since Bo Svensson was dismissed as head coach. Whether the interim head coach keeps the role ( he has coached in the EPL) or a new appointment is made , it looks a good job as the only way is up and Mainz have finished top 10 in each of the last two seasons.
 
1.FC Koln
 
Last season 42 pts, xP 50.
 
This season xGD -8, xP 10, net BC's -22, net ITB -31 .
 
1.FC Union Berlin
 
Last season 62 points, xP 43.
 
This season xGD -4xP 12net BC's -6net ITB +4 .
 
I cannot count how many times I have said that I am lost in admiration for how well run Union are as a club . They were promoted to the Bundesliga for the first time ever in 2019, in the four subsequent campaigns they have finished 11-7-5-4 improving each year on a tiny budget and reaching the Champions League last season. It is an incredible achievement /story. However, here they sit bottom of the Bundesliga, out of the domestic cup, unable to qualify from their CL group after 4 games and with a record of 0-1-13 in their last 13 starts (failing to score in 10)! They are not the first team to go too far too fast and sometimes you should be careful what you wish for. The fall from grace feels like it has been total, but looking for positives, they can forget about the CL now and should do similar with regard to Europa League qualification, try to enjoy their home game with Real Madrid for the big occasion it is and leave it at that and it is still early in the season, they are "only" 2 points from safety and their numbers are mid table level. If they can re-find some confidence ,but as I am fond of saying it is easy to take for granted when you have it, but a bugger to find once lost(!), then they can start to edge up the table. They appear to have parted ways with head coach Urs Fischer this morning which was doubtless a tough decision after what he and the club achieved but feels a correct one and possibly another "good" job to walk into, as it feels the only way is up.
 

clubgowi Glossary:

 
ITB= inside the box attempts, Goal of the month competitions usually feature several long range contenders and we always remember those 30 yard bullets into the top corner, but only 12.87% of Premier League goals over the last three seasons have been scored from outside the box , good coaches are known to encourage players to look for better scoring opportunities and it is usually only supporters urging "shoooooot" everytime the goal is within sight, even if there are 20 players between ball and net .
 
XG= expected goals.
XGF= expected goals for.
XGA = expected goals against.
XGD = expected goal difference.
XP = expected points.
BC = big scoring chance.
 
Good luck!

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