Bundesliga preview ..........
Apr 08, 2022
Bundesliga: VfB Stuttgart- Borussia Dortmund
I was strongly behind Stuutgart for their trip to Arminia Bielefeld last weekend .........
BMG and Stuttgart have similar figures, good overall and really strong offensively and certainly not bottom six and those are on the rise too, Stuttgart seem to re-found the attacking mojo they originally thrilled with on their return to the top flight and in their last three starts alone, they are a net +5 BC's and +14 ITB .
Bielefeld are awful and at both ends of the pitch, they have not created a BC in their last four starts and have given up double digit ITB attempts in five of those six games, it was a tough schedule, but this is a league where play is open and even against top half teams you should be able to create something , as opposed to nothing much at all !
It is very difficult to look at the above numbers and not see this as a highly likely away win and I am not going to disappoint you !
Bielefeld are creating next to nothing and you can make a case for them also being the worst team defensively, the visitors are a net +14 BC's and +65 ITB, as we are only talking about six games, those are HUGE numbers.
These issues are not new, last season they finished 15th, but were bottom two for xP and were 17th in expected categories. Goals have been a terrible problem, only Schalke who were cast adrift at the foot of the table scored fewer last season and this time round they have the wooden spoon. Since promotion in 2020 they have scored 48 in 61 league starts (0.786 pg). These two were promoted together but are very different, Stuttgart have averaged 1.492 goals pg and are right now returning to their free flowing and scoring ways. Only one away win for the visitors, but 7 last season (best outside the top 3) and they are returning to those levels and Arminia have only won 2/14 at home.
All looked good when Stuttgart led midway through the first half , but it somehow finished 1-1, I say "somehow" as Stuttgart, "won" xG 2.70-1.01, BC's 4-1 and hit the woodwork a couple of times and most other days score 2-3 and concede "half" a goal !
It is easy to see them having more joy in front of goal today (these things have a habit of levelling out) and Dortmund "love" a shootout and the last 15 h2h meetings have all produced 3+ goals (ten with 4+) at an average of 4.27. The visitors did end up winning 12 of those and do have a nice ability to end up on the right side of those kinds of games. For example, they have played 14 games this season which have produced 5+ goals and won 9.
Stuttgart have averaged a shade under 2.0 xGF per game across their last 8 starts , which included three games versus top 7 opponents.
Both teams are hard hit defensively, the hosts are likely to have to revert to a back three with injury issues and now suspension to Waldermar Anton (both teams scored in the last 7 starts he has missed), Dortmund have a shortage of defenders and are again likely to start without a full back and with a DM in a three man defence. That same line up lost 4-1 at home to Leipzig last time out .
Stuttgart to score 2+ goals is priced at circa 2.80, "over" 3.5 goals total is 2.51 and Dortmund to win with both teams scoring is 3.43 and all make some appeal and I would not hurry to try and dissuade you from betting any of those options and three of the last six h2h meetings in Stuttgart have ended 2-3 which allowed for all three suggestions to win in each .
The hosts have created 20 BC's and 73 ITB attempts in their last 7 starts which is top 4 offensive level and better than Dortmund through that sequence, so if forced to choose , I would have to opt for ............
1.75 units VfB Stuttgart to score "over" 1.5 goals 2.80 asian line.
Good luck !
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