Brazil: Serie A betting tip: Fluminense- Atletico Goianiense
Sep 02, 2020
Brazil: Serie A: Fluminense- Atletico Goianiense
I know "the ball is round" and all that but some things just defy belief and how on earth did Atletico Goianiense beat Brazil and continent champions Flamengo 3-0 last month ! Ahead of that I noted ..............
Newly promoted Atletico Goianiensehave not played a match of any description in five months (!) no State Championship fixtures, nothing at all. They have only beaten Fla once in their history, are not playing in their own stadium this evening ( not yet ready after renovations) and have a host of players missing with injury and after testing positive for coronavirus (five was the official number said to be self isolating, but there could be more).
AGO have lost their last four games without scoring and conceded eight in the process, two of those starts came versus fellow strugglers and one in the cup versus a third tier opponent. I still cannot believe that they beat Fla given the build up to that game, let alone won 3-0 ! Anyway, it feels like normality has returned and I favour Fluminense today, the hosts biggest rival is Flamengo so they will have some local bragging rights if they beat the team who hammered Fla, football supporters love a bit of banter !
I previewed Fluminense's home game with Internacional last month ............
Inter have started the season well with six points and two clean sheets and their game is all about keeping things tight and disciplined defensively. I have no issue with them as small favourites today, but have a soft spot for Fluminense who did us a couple of favours last season, usually at good odds and think they are a better team than we have seen at times and they do tend to raise their game against the bigger and name clubs and today fits that profile. They opened with a pair of very tough fixtures, away to Gremio and home to Palmeiras, they lost the first 1-0 , drew the second 1-1, they certainly deserved something from the opener and restricted Palmeiras, who are expected to challenge for the title again, to just one attempt on target and only two ITB.
Last season I spoke a lot about how well they were playing without getting the result, also tending to raise their game against the top teams and shortly after they had hosted Inter I noted..............
Flu's last two home starts illustrate what they are capable of, they beat Copa Libertadores contenders Internacional 2-1 and lost 1-0 to struggling CSA, in the first they "won" attempts 22-15, on target 6-4, big chances 3-1, hit woodwork 1-0 , attempts inside box 14-5, passes 640-412 , completions 89%-84%, in the second, for the same categories they were 33-5, 12-3, 3-0, 1-0, 16-3, 686-344 , 91%-73%. They were worthy winners of the first and could not lose the second with those numbers again even if they tried !
That highlights what Flu are capable of when things click and they will take confidence from last season's performance in this fixture, Inter look solid, but have not played anyone of real note yet and odds just feel too big.
Flu won that 2-1 and have actually won 4/5 (one cup) since I wrote those notes, Inter franked the form, as they have won 5/6 league starts and sit top of the table. Home win , 2-0.
2 units Fluminense -1 ball 2.57 asian line/Sportmarket.
Good luck !
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