Brazil Serie A betting preview
Jul 20, 2022
Serie A: Flamengo - Juventude
I am not going to spend too long on this, ahead of their weekend home game with Coritiba , I wrote the following about Flamengo ...........
Ahead of a Flamengo away trip to Santos two weeks ago I noted .........
Flamengo...........what has gone "wrong" ? They have appeared in two of the last three Copa Libertadores finals and were Serie A champions in 2019 and 2020, runner up last season. This time around they are 9th and six+ points adrift of top 5 and they have found winning hard domestically. However, they are big odds on to make the last eight of the CL (won their away first leg in the R16) and XGF suggests they should have scored 8-9 more goals (also conceding a couple more). It is their league away form which has really let them down (1-2-4), but no sign of that in the CL and they lost only four times on the road all last season, scoring 38 goals (2.0 pg) and that was 11 more than anyone else and only four teams managed more than 19 goals! I cannot believe that too much is wrong and inconceivable that they will not end up top 6 IMO, but they cannot afford to lose too many more, especially to direct rivals for the top places, so I expect a performance today and easy to see goals for both teams, given their respective numbers. Flu won 4-0 here 10 months ago, even half that number would do today!
Flamengo won that 2-1 and were 5-0 for BC's and built on that with a fairly needless (they already led 1-0 from the away first leg), but confidence boosting, 7-1 win over Deportes Tolima in the Copa Libertadores in the next midweek, where they missed a further 4 BC's. That was actually 12 BC's missed in their last four starts and clearly they have upped their game, but still have a lot more goal scoring potential, we already knew that, but good to have it confirmed! They then lost 1-0 at Corinthians but to a freakish own goal and they would usually take something from that game (three points ?) 8 times from 10. They got back on track in midweek with a 2-0 win over defending champions CAM in the Copa do Brasil to overturn a first leg defeat and looking at the numbers from that, it was an embarrassingly easy win over an elite opponent and highlights just how good Fla can be when in the mood. They are 9th, but not out of things and xG places them 2nd ( CAM the same level, but Fla ran roughshod over them a couple of days ago), however, they can ill afford to slip up in home games against inferior opposition. Flamengo by 2-4 goals.
Fla won 2-0 and the win took them up to 7th, they are very far from out of things and even if first place is a tall, albeit not impossible, order, top 3 is definitely on the cards and will be a target. They were two up inside 23 minutes in that and they went into cruise control, they should probably have scored more, but never looked in danger of conceding and did not allow an attempt on target and just five ITB attempts . Fla have the second best xGD in Serie A, should have scored an additional 11 goals and are clearly going to come on very strong over the second half of the season. Today they host basement club Juventude and the visitors should already have one eye on their weekend fixture which is far more win-able and if they are going to put in a survival bid, it will be via points collected in fixtures like that and not away games to elite teams on a quick turnaround.
2 units Flamengo -1.75 goals 2.25 asian line.
Good luck1
We don't just sell football betting tips, as you can see there is an extensive analysis behind our asian handicap selections. Subscribing to our sports betting advice service need not break the bank. Learn more by visiting our subscriptions page.
Country:
Sport: