Santos are 5-10 points off Copa Libertadores pace (depending on how many spots are ultimately available) and are winless in 4 starts, scoring just 3 goals in six outings, they are coming off a 1-0 loss away to leaders Palmeiras, but the other five games in that sequence were against teams with an average league placing of 12.6. They averaged 1.1 xGF per game and were under 0.9 in four of those, they are simply not creating enough.

 

Athletico are 6th, in charge of their own Copa Libertadores destiny and only five points off second place, leaders Palmeiras look to have the title sewn up. They have lost only to Flamengo (no shame in that) in 14 starts and only three times in 16 away games (all competitions). They won on their last visit to Santos (Copa do Brasil) and the two shared four goals in the reverse league meeting in a VERY open game. CAP have averaged 1.4xGF per away league start.

 

Santos brought in Yeferson Soteldo on loan last month to help this shortage of goals crisis, it has not helped yet and he is absent today, away with the Venezuela national team. Another loanee DM Rodrigo Fermnandez is injured, they are 0-3-5 in his absence this season, losing just one of the last ten when he plays.

 

CAP are without defenders Pedrinho and Pedro Henrique which is not ideal, but have done ok in the absence  of ONE before, look to have more options and good cover in central defence, but LB is a massive concern as, in addition to Pedrinho , Abner is missing, so they will have someone out of position on that flank. This is a chance for Santos, they need top scorer Marcos Leonardo to step up once again, but he scored twice in the reverse fixture and both goals came from crosses on that right flank, so the defensive absences would have got everyone's attention.

 

Santos have to go for it and I cannot see either keeping a clean sheet, hosts have been firing blanks, but what worked for them in the reverse fixture seems likely to have even more success this evening, last two league games here have ended in home wins with both teams scoring and that will be my pick, but going "over" gives us a little more cover.

 

2.25 units "over" 2.5 goals 2.36 asian line.

 

Good luck!