Today's Championship games ...............
Jan 25, 2022
Championship:
Birmingham City- Peterborough United
City have taken 5 points from their last six games and faced opposition with an average league placing of 13.4.
Blues have improved xG numbers through their last four starts and have been very unlucky (understatement) to concede 10 goals from an xGA of 4.0 and they were a net + 1.0 xGD and +1 BC, but -4 actual goals and played two top 4 teams.
Posh have taken 4 points from their last six games and faced opposition with an average league placing of 14.8.
They have conceded 10 goals in their last three starts and put up some appalling numbers, they were a net -8.1 xGD and 1-16 for BC's and 7-49 ITB and off the top of my head , I cannot recall three worse set of numbers in the Championship since that awful Blackpool team of 2014-15 ( conceded 91 goals with a -55 goal difference).
Coventry City- Stoke City
Coventry have taken 5 points from their last six games and faced opposition with an average league placing of 11.2. Their xG for the last four starts is back on the up and they are a net +2 BC's and +14 ITB.
Stoke have taken 7 points from their last six games and faced opposition with an average league placing of 12.4. The visitors have played better on the road in recent weeks, but overall, they have some numbers which give real cause for concern, with an xGF of under 0.5 goals in four of their last 9 starts.
Coventry won the reverse fixture 3-2 at the end of last season (April 21) , which was the last time these two met and it was as wide open a contest as the scoreline suggests and the Sky Blues certainly looking better suited to winning that kind of game.
Coventry have a first half home record of 2-4-7 which ranks them 23rd, but they do a complete turnaround after the break, with a mirrored 7-4-2 , good for 5th best.
Luton Town - Bristol City
Town have taken 10 points from their last six games and faced opposition with an average league placing of 14.0. The Hatters recent numbers are very good , at least when they keep 11 men on the pitch (unlike the weekend loss away to Sheffield United) .
City have taken 7 points from their last six games and faced opposition with an average league placing of 13.6. I have spent the last 30 months bad mouthing them, or at least highlighting their poor numbers which have been bottom 4-5 throughout the three campaigns, despite the Robins spending much of that period in or around the playoff zone.
Their last three games have seen them (somehow) score 8 goals from an xGF of 3.0 and just 2 BC's and whilst averaging 7 ITB attempts per game and that is unlikely to continue and there should be some levelling off.
The hosts haven't quite kicked on as I hoped after writing in October............
This is Town's third season back in the second tier, the first was always going to be a struggle as they had been in the National League as recently as 2014, League 2 in 2018 and reached the Championship on the back of a second consecutive promotion. The return of head coach Nathan Jones in May 2020 was crucial and he guided them from almost certain relegation to survival and a 19th place finish. Last season was a breeze in comparison and they finished 12th (played at top 10 level) collecting 62 points , 11 more than in 19/20. They actually picked up 31 points in the second half of that first Championship campaign and 30 points in the first 23 games last season and 31 in the second half, so real consistency through one and a half seasons and that level of performance (circa 61-62 points) should always be good for top half or very close in the second tier.
Town are quite ambitious , have long term plans to build a new stadium and were one of very few Championship clubs to be very active in the transfer market this last transfer window, which has created plenty of competition for starting places. They are currently 13th with 14 points, but are the only team in the bottom half of the table with a positive goal difference which is usually a good sign and they are 4th with 23 pts in the xP table. They should have scored four goals more and conceded 3-4 fewer . They pose a big goal threat and have recorded an xGF of at least 2.22 in six of their 11 starts including in three games against top 9 teams.
Back at the start of that first Championship season I wrote about that rapid rise and how they were going to be handicapped with the loss of two key players and the aforementioned Jones and their preferred formation .........
Luton Town were playing non league football in 2018 and League 2 level as recently as 2018, they were League 1 champions last season and they and Barnsley were stats wise, head and shoulders above the other teams in the third tier. They had two full/wing backs in James Justin and Jack Stacey who were effectively PL quality in League 1, both have now moved to the Premier league and are irreplaceable. They will stick with the diamond favoured and introduced by Nathan Jones, now of Stoke City and interim boss Mick Harford did a wonderful job to just carry on that work and run with it. Town were a VERY good League 1 team, but it is a big step up and they have come a long way quickly, Town have lost their two stand out players and have a new boss in Graeme Jones who is a very well respected coach, but we have no idea if he is a head coach and not all make the step up.
In this narrow diamond, the full backs are key, the two replacements to Justin and Stacey were always likely to be lower quality and they are ! Most of the rest of this squad have little experience of this level and such rapid promotions usually catch up with teams eventually.
They really struggled in that debut campaign at this level, but upon his return, Nathan Jones made the defense his priority and adopted a less suicidal high press when out of possession and in this window he opted for younger, more athletic additions. I understand that NJ chased left wing back Amari'i Bell for 12 months before his summer signing and he and James Bree are the new Justin and Stacey and come close to completing the system NJ wants to play. Forward Elijah Adebayo was very well thought of as a teenager and came through the Fulham youth system which has developed a lot of talented footballers and he has had to work hard over the last 4-5 years to get back into the professional game, still only 23 yo , he already has five goals this season and Town pick up better than 1.54 points pg when the giant but mobile striker plays. That equates to 71 points across 46 games ,which is circa top 7 level. The squad looks quite deep, is better than results so far indicate and we should keep on the right side of them, they are circa 2.10-2.25 to finish top 12 (top half) and that feels too big and is likely to happen, however, there is also up to 11.0 for top six which is more speculative , but also more rewarding and the Hatters could go close.
They are now 13th, 9 points off top six with games in hand on many teams above them, they should be good for top half, are starting to find some form again and 3-4 wins in the Championship can always take you a long way, the reverse fixture finished 1-1 , but Town were a net +2.0 xG in that game (4-0 BC's) and are just the better team . Four of Town's next five starts are versus bottom 9 teams and they will be looking to put a run together now.
Nottingham Forest - Barnsley
Forest have taken 12 points from their last six games and faced opposition with an average league placing of 16.0.
The hosts have done us a lot of favours in recent weeks and notes on their win away to Millwall from 10 days ago are reproduced at the foot of this email, they needed a very later winner at the New Den to take the points, but it was fully deserved in a game where they won xG 3.77- 1.46 which is an enormous advantage on the road in this toughest of leagues. They then won their deby with Derby 2-1 on Saturday , they had 9 BC's across the two games and despite scoring just three goals could hardly have been more impressive. They had a 2.0 xGF against County who had given up just an xGA of 0.65, 0.79, 0.28, 1.16, 0.24 in their previous five starts, four of which were versus top half of the table opposition.
Barnsley have taken 3 points from their last six games and faced opposition with an average league placing of 14.2. The Tykes have not created a single BC in their last three starts (0.8 xGF combined) and only two total in their last seven outings ( max xG of 0.85)
QPR- Swansea City
Rangers have taken 12 points from their last six games and faced opposition with an average league placing of 12.6.
City have taken 7 points from their last six games and faced opposition with an average league placing of 16.4. The Swans have conceded at least 3 BC's at an average of 4.5 pg in their last four starts v top 8 opponents.
Not much else to say about this beyond a nightmare scenario for me would be both Fulham (don't overly care) and QPR (REALLY don't want them to be promoted) to go up to the EPL, although the 12 points next season would be handy !
Glossary:
ITB= inside the box attempts, Goal of the month competitions usually feature several long range contenders and we always remember those 30 yard bullets into the top corner, but only 12.87% of Premier League goals over the last three seasons have been scored from outside the box , good coaches are known to encourage players to look for better scoring opportunities and it is usually only supporters urging "shoooooot" everytime the goal is within sight, even if there are 20 players between ball and net .
XG= expected goals.
XGF= expected goals for.
XGA = expected goals against.
XGD = expected goal difference.
XP = expected points.
BC = big scoring chance.
Good luck !
Championship:Millwall- Nottingham Forest (written January 15th)
Millwall started strongly in their FA Cup derby with Crystal Palace last week, but the Eagles eventually showed their edge in class to come from behind and win 2-1. The Lions look exactly what they are, a mid table Championship side, in a below average second tier this season, that is not to do them down, they have budget limitations and always make the most of what they have got, but will be playing in this division again next season and I am likely to be typing the same thing then.This is their 10th of the last 12 seasons in the Championship and their average finishing position in the previous nine was 14.0 and never higher than 8th.
Forest have themselves spent the last 14 seasons in the Championship, but the difference is that they are under and not overperforming to stay there, they have finished above 14th six times and should have been promoted once or twice and even that is not good enough for a club of their size and history. This season, following the change in head coach and upturn in fortunes the sold out signs have been going up at the City Ground and regular crowds of 25,000+ are commonplace. We have previewed a lot of their games since Steve Cooper's arrival and ahead of a trip to Swansea last month my notes went an awful lot like this ...........
Along with Bournemouth, Forest have been the Championship side we have discussed the most and they have served us well , most recently with a 4-1 win away to Swansea City (December 11th)..........
Two weeks ago I previewed highflying WBA-Forest and you can read full notes on the clubgowi website.
That did indeed end in a draw (0-0) and Forest followed up with a 2-0 win at home to lowly Peterborough United last week, that is 7 games unbeaten , with four clean sheets in the last five and a 6-6-1 record since Steve Cooper took over, the only loss in that sequence came against leaders Fulham and Cooper probably regrets the change in formation he made that night, as his team were all at sea early and his sides are usually nothing if not very disciplined and well organised. That team he has led has been today's host, Swansea City, for the last two Championship seasons, where he took them to the playoffs on each occasion, losing to Brentford in both the semi finals in 19-20 and final in 20-21...............what a shame ! Cooper knows City better than anyone involved at the South Wales club currently. The Swans have won just 3/8 and two of those wins were against bottom 2 teams and they have lost their last two and they are very much in transition . I wrote about that in the early season, but have now apparently, made the decision to completely overhaul their recruitment policy/process and head of recruitment Andy Scott, who a while ago held a similar position at Brentford and was a former Bees head coach (2007-11) left the club. What club parts company with their HOR four weeks before the transfer window ? I cannot see that as a positive. Forest off level ball.
After that resounding win, they then beat improving Hull City 2-1 here at the City Ground, but then lost for the first time in 10 games away to highflying Middlesbrough on Boxing Day. I will let head coach Steve Cooper explain how that played out and his thoughts are reproduced at the foot of this email. There is no shame in losing any game in the Championship, a league which is as tough and draining as any in world football and one with a relentless schedule, but it is how you bounce back which separates the men from the boys.
The Tricky Trees ( worst nickname in football ?) have lost their only subsequent league start since the Boro defeat, but we need not lose any sleep over that, it was to a top six team and Forest "won" ITB attempts 13-2 , xG by 1.0 and dominated . They beat Arsenal in the FA Cup last week to get back on track, but it is the bread and butter league games which matter and Forest need to close that gap to top six and the playoff spots, they currently sit in 9th, six points off the pace, but are very much in the mix. You can say what you like about Cooper, he is not everyone's cup of team, but he has a tremendous Championship record after taking Swansea to the postseason in both seasons at the helm and averaging 1.65 ppg across 109 starts which should almost always be good for 5th or 6th place . Cooper has far more funds and flexibility to deal in the transfer market here than he ever did at Swansea, at least in the final 18 months at the Liberty and in this current transfer window he has already bought in striker Keinan Davis on loan from Villa and signed vastly experienced Steve Cook from Bouremouth and Richie Laryea from Toronto FC and that pair will improve greatly defensive options. Forest sold out their 2,000 ticket allocation for today some time ago and I expect those supporters to be heading back to London Bridge in buoyant mood.
2.25 units Nottingham Forest level ball 2.17 asian line.
We don't just sell football betting tips, as you can see there is an extensive analysis behind our asian handicap selections. Subscribing to our sports betting advice service need not break the bank. Learn more by visiting our subscriptions page.
Country:
Sport:
Competition: