Today's games at the Euros ............
Jun 28, 2021
Euro 2020:
Croatia- Spain.............Copenhagen
I sided with Croatia to beat Scotland on group Matchday 3 ........
Only the Czechs have really come out of the group with credit so far and they went into settle for a draw mode (thankfully) against Croatia once their opponent levelled. Scotland have played adventurously , certainly in their opener and once the England game allowed and we have to acknowledge that, but they are yet to score and I spoke about their striking options prior to the game at Wembley and also of that being their "final".............
Scotland actually created the 5th highest xGF through the opening round of games. But that is where the issue lies, not sure how Ryan Christie started up front alongside Lydon Dykes and ahead of Che Adams, the latter is the better player and Scotland looked stronger after his introduction, but none of the trio is close to real international level and goals are always going to be an issue against the stronger nations. The Scots will be up for this of course, this is their "final" and a draw would be seen as a victory and celebrated wildly, but it is difficult to see it happening unless England have a very off day. Andy Robertson aside, it is impossible to make a strong case for any other Scottish player being good enough to even be considered for the home squad and I am talking about the 30 man group. The last players left out of the English group would be viewed as stars, with a team built around them, if they had Scottish roots.
It was more of the same in terms of missed chances and there is no guarantee that they will take any which come their way today when they host Croatia, both team need to win to have a chance to progress and given that and that one or both will be throwing the kitchen sink at the other at various stages, that they might need two goals to book the win and I struggle to see how Scotland are going to score twice, whereas, Croatia, as poor as they have been have that quality and potential. It is true that we have seen precious little of it yet, but they found the goal against the Czechs when they really had to and they are big and experienced competition players which Scotland are not and the home side are also dealing with those Billy Gilmour COVID issues, he was a major player in the England game, there is no knowing how the rest of the squad have been affected (not infected) by that and a feeling that there gave their all at Wembley. It has to be Croatia for me.
I could not touch the other game, England should win, but struggle to put "lesser" teams to the sword and I suspect the Czech Republic will be tough to break down, the last five England wins have been by a single goal and as that might well be enough to also retain second place for the Czechs, another one goal win would have to be the pick, if I had one !
They won that 3-1 but Scotland were again unable to make the most of what came their way and missed two of only three BC's in the game.
Spain ran riot and finally won with a 5-0 demolition of Slovakia, ahead of which my notes included .......
It is going to be very hot in both venues for these early evening kick offs.
Oddsmakers cannot see beyond the home win in Seville and I have to agree, they have drawn both games and only scored one goal, but their xGF is a sky high 6.1 which is competition highest through two rounds and if they had a stand out striker, they would already be qualified for the knockout stage. Slovakia should have already conceded four and have rode their luck at times. Spain can still finish top of the section with a good win today and that would carry with it a game in Glasgow against a third placed team ( Czech Republic ?) which is a great reward. However, odds are useless and the game a relatively easy pass in terms of 90 minute markets.
1.5 units Spain -1 ball 2.51 first half betting asian line...........the temperature and the fact that they have started strongly and then struggled to score when the goal doesn't come, means I can see Spain really going for this early and they have led 2-0/4-0/3-0/1-0/3-0/2-0/2-0 at half time in the last 7 home games they have won !
Spain led 2-0 at half time, despite missing an early penalty and they ended the three group games with a xG of circa 10.0 and an xGD of around +7.0, we are not sure exactly what they beat, as Slovakia were poor, but Poland (#21) and Sweden (#18) are FIFA ranked similar to Croatia ( #14).
It is a good job for the rest of the teams in this competition that Spain do not have a real striker, they have shown great confidence/faith in Alvaro Morata , but he is not that man. However, they look a class above anything we have seen from Croatia at these championships and will create plenty of chances and we know how they tend to win games (when they do) which is to get ahead early and that will always open up more space. I expect Spain to win , but prefer the first half odds once again and Croatia have conceded before the break in their last two and in 3 of the last 4 (also losing two of those first halves).
1.75 units Spain -0.5 ball 2.35 asian line/first half betting.
France- Switzerland.........Bucharest
I started the Euros talking about the format and unfair schedule that some teams were facing, most notably the Swiss ..........
Every World Cup or European Championship has something of contention about it , the ball, altitude, weather concerns, travel, politics, this competition is no different (wait until I get started on the Copa America !), it has COVID hanging over it like the Sword of Damocles and the schedule is just plain NUTS !
I just do not get why this was not moved to a single country , especially after it was delayed a year, all this unnecessary travel is just ridiculous and dangerous under current conditions. I will be delighted , but a little surprised if it all passes without a hitch.
Some of the groups give a huge advantage/ disadvantage to teams way beyond what we would ever see, even in regard to host nations.
Group A sees Italy as "host" and they play each game in Rome, the other nations have their fixtures split between Rome and Baku ! Which is a two hour time difference and a 5-6 hour flight in each direction ! Turkey start in Rome and then play two games in Baku, Wales start in Baku with two games and finish in the Italian capital. It is Switzerland who have the short straw with their fixtures played in Baku-Rome-Baku, add in time to arrive in Azerbaijan and to get to a round of 16 game (if they make it), we are talking some 40 hours of travel and transit , across 10 time zones ,if my maths is correct !
Almost every preview you will read of today's game will start with something like, Switzerland played well against Wales and Turkey, but were awful and a no show against Italy . I wonder why ? They were probably out on their feet already and exhausted from travel and took a pragmatic approach to that game in Rome , especially once they trailed early. It was all very unfair and unjust to judge them overly on that performance IMO.
As gruelling as that schedule was, it probably helped bring the group together and today, they have travelled less from their home base to Bucharest than the French and have had a whopping 8 days to rest up and prepare, which is three days longer than France and huge in competition terms.
We know how good the French are and their squad is ridiculously "deep", but we have not seen them at their best yet and they conceded three goals total to Hungary and Portugal and lost the xG battle to both Germany and the Portugese.
My feeling is that France are too short and 4/5 h2h meetings have ended all square, including both played at major championships, all four of those were 0-0 at half time and a repeat of that would not surprise and is priced at circa 2.60. I am "tossing a coin" over the Swiss +0.5 ball and the draw which is attractively priced, but after much deliberation, I will go with .........
1.75 units Switzerland +0.5 ball 2.40 asian line.
Good luck !
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