Serie A betting tip : Napoli- AS Roma
Mar 03, 2018
Serie A : Napoli- AS Roma
I sided with Napoli to win big at Cagliari last weekend and got decent odds to do so and I think I made a pretty good case about why they would (!) ...............
The visitors are quoted as a big favourite for today, but I am by no means certain that they are big enough !
Ahead of their Serie A opener, I spoke about Napoli's commitment to the title race and how all the players had agreed to stay in an attempt to give the club the scudetto it craved............
Napoli should have a big fitness edge on Verona, after being primed to hit the ground running for an early Champions League start and a 2-0 home win over Nice in midweek has started things off nicely, they had enough chances to win two games there and should be able to build on that. By the time this match starts, they will already know how Juventus got on in the early game, if they have won, Napoli will be playing catch up, any other result will give them the opportunity to steal a march on the six time running champions. Both are motivating factors and this is the year that Napoli have to look to really make a race of the title, they have closed the gap on the Old Lady from 25 points in 14-15, to 9 the next campaign and five last season. There have been no big transfers out of the club this time round and Juve have broken up that famous backline and already conceded three to Lazio in the Super Cup, so every reason to believe that they can narrow the gap still further. They were strong on the road last season, winning a league high 13 times and scoring an incredible 50 goals, 21 more than the champions. They have impressed and won friends for their stylish attacking play, but now feels like time to step up and win something. The players made a "Scudetto Pact" agreed to all stay together and look to win the title this season and they have spoken often in build up about knowing they have to work even harder this year. They get more space on the road and can play to their strengths, a team on a mission and I favour them to record a 2 goal + win this evening.
They currently sit one point above six time champions Juventus in a two horse title race, they still have to go to Turin to play the "Old Lady" so can afford no let up and have to stay ahead and hope that Juve slip up somewhere and they do have a very tricky away game at Lazio just days before their Champions League second leg with Tottenham, where the North London side are now quoted short priced favourites to progress. So, all that makes this a big game for Napoli who have been phenomenal on the road since the start of 2017, they have compiled a 20-2-0 record in away league starts, with a 57-17 goal difference, that is 2.59-0.77 goals per game on average and a ridiculous 90.91% win rate . Suddenly that asian line for tonight looks far more do-able and certainly less daunting !
They have also dominated recent h2h meetings scoring 11 goals in the last three, which included a 3-0 win in Naples in the reverse fixture where Cagliari only managed a single attempt on goal from inside the box, with none on target. Napoli won 5-0 here last season, with 11 attempts on target, also hitting the woodwork, with the home keeper making five saves, they also put up some "silly" passing numbers, making almost 500 passes MORE than their host with well over 90% accuracy and Cagliari really were lucky to score nil ! The home side have already lost seven times here this season, with only the bottom two tasting defeat on home soil more often. Now the odds are starting to look generous !
They won that 5-0 with the contest over inside an hour. Now they meet a "rival", the only problem is that Roma are not putting up much of a fight in the scudetto hunt and they are really only battling for a Champions League place, having lost their way in recent months. 26 rounds have been played in Serie A, after half of those Napoli led Roma by 4 points, now that advantage has been stretched to 19 and for that sequence, the league leaders have picked up points at the rate of 1.15 pg more. Napoli have won all of their last 10, Roma just 3.
The hosts have to travel to both Milan clubs and then Juventus in their next eight starts and can certainly not allow any points to be lost here in Naples, by kick off they will know how Juve has done in a very tricky away game at Lazio, whichever way that goes it is surely motivation, either to catch up, or press home an advantage. The home side do not have the greatest record in this fixture, just 4 wins in ten visits from the Wolves, but three of those came by 2+ goals and they have also won the last two meetings, both in the Eternal City and they have also beaten Lazio here 4-1 in the last month.
1.5 units Napoli -1.25 ball 2.36 asian line/Sportmarket .
Good Luck.
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