Wednesday May 15th

The two AFC matches have already been played, Guangzhou won 2-1 and Reysol 2-0 .

AFC Champions League:Central Coast Mariners-Guangzhou Evergrande

Last 16 matches, which have gone back to two legs this year, the return fixtures are next week and they will be more interesting from a betting perspective. Mariners are now into unknown territory after making the knockout stages for the first time, infact they are only the third Australian team ever to make it this far. Problem for them is two fold, one is that their regular season ended in March and whilst they have been involved in playoffs and Champions League football, that all came at the end of a long season and things will get tougher from now on in, their last competitive match was 15 days ago, the second concern is that they are playing Guangzhou Evergrande !

CCM lost that last match at home to Kashiwa Reysol 3-0, it was a meaningless fixture for the Japanese team, who had already won the group, Mariners needed three points to secure a place in the last 16 , they blew that and are only here courtesy of Guizhou Renhe gifting them a spot in the knockout stage. They were nervous in that and it is hard to see the situation changing against a stronger opponent, they will surely need to take a lead to the return leg and we have already seen them struggle when they attempt to make the running and force the issue against the stronger asian teams. Maybe they know that, which is why their coach Graham Arnold has been speaking a lot in the build up about the importance of keeping a cleansheet and even said he would be "happy" with 0-0. Well that would be even more dangerous IMO, if they sit back against the visitors and invite pressure, that seems sure to only end one way.

I am a big fan of Evergrande and they are hugely entertaining to watch, you all know about them now, but I will give some basic background information from my notes of last season... "Chinese companies have started to "throw" money at the sport and Guangzhou have received massive investment from the Evergrande Real Estate. They have spent money like water, signing arguably three of the very top domestic players in Gao Lin, Sun Xiang and Zheng Zhi, two of whom have played for big european clubs and with some 200 international appearrances between the trio. They then spent big on the Brazilian trio, Paulao, Muriqui and Cleo, another $10m on Dario Conca the Argentine playmaker from Fluminense , where he was voted Brazilian footballer of the year. They have recently completed the paperwork to sign Lucas Barrios next month, which takes the spending on that international quintet to circa $35m and a similar amount on yearly salaries, Conca is said to be on $200k per week !

The club had fallen on hard times and down to League 1, before the new owners stepped in ,but the first wave of new signings helped them win that easily and last year, their first back in the top flight, they won  Super league by a massive 15 points, they are already top once again after just 12 games, but now desire an international title. To that end, Marcello Lippi has been brought in as coach on a contract worth over 10m euros per year , nice work if you can get it at pensionable age ! The four South American players are waaaay too good to be playing at this level and whilst Conca has been a little too outspoken at times (which got him in trouble with the previous boss, although Lippi wiped that slate and suspension clean) , they have all looked pretty committed to the cause, not just here for a paycheque and unplayable at times, like in the incredible impressive 5-1 win at Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors ( they would have comfortably beaten any team in Asia that day). Inconsistency has been a problem at times, especially when they have expected to win against lesser opponents, but Lippi has been brought in to sort that out and they should have enough to see FCT off today, easily if things go well. Original line was higher, but I couldn't put this up on Sunday night for a variety of reasons, so not a max bet, but I really like this, so .

They will be without Muriqui upfront , but Lucas Barrios, Cleo and Dario Conca are all prolific goalscorers and more than capable of taking the chances that will surely come their way. The visitors might be tempted to try and sit on their two goal advantage, to be honest, that would be perfect as they are offensively minded usually and not really set up to play on the back foot. Al Ittihad coach Raul Caneda seems well aware of the huge potential the hosts have and said "We will play against a new giant in football,China is a new giant that is starting to appear and Guangzhou has been the leader of football in China in the last two years, I think the Chinese league in the next year will be the best league in Asia and in four or five years it will be one of the important leagues in the world, so they have a lot of possibilities." Guangzhou captain Zheng Zhi,seemed in confident mood on Sunday saying "We have every chance of going through and reversing the result of the first leg , so I and all the players are confident we will win this match." I definitely feel they can edge this match and if they show half the slick passing and shoot on sight policy we saw in the 5-1 win in South Korea against Jeonbuk they might still turn this tie around."

Squad wise, they are on another level to almost everyone in Asia and have an annual playing budget 20 times bigger than Mariners, with Dario Conca earning in two months, what the entire Australian squad do in a year ! Lippi has used his contacts and spoken to good friend Alessandro Del Piero, who is playing in the A-League, several times recently to get some first hand experience of Central Coast. The Chinese giants will be without suspended defensive midfielder Qin Sheng, but he was unlikely to start in any case and they have no other problems. Evergrande could put this to bed in the first leg and odds against looks a fair quote. 1.25 units Guangzhou Evergrande -0.5 ball 2.08 asian line/Ibramarket.

Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors-Kashiwa Reysol

Reysol had a hugely impressive group campaign, going unbeaten and scoring for fun, 14 goals in total, including six on their last trip to Korea, when they thumped Suwon Samsung Bluewings. This fixture is even less of a step into the unknown as the two met in the group stage last year, with Reysol winning 2-0 in Jeonbuk and 5-1 in the return, results which put JHM out of the competition. The Japanese side then went out, in what was at the time a one leg last 16 match, losing (again in Korea) 3-2 to eventual competition winners Ulsan Hyundai in what was probably the toughest match the champions were given in the knockout stage, with the match turning on a hotly disputed goal. The visitors feel they can go deep this year , their domestic form has suffered somewhat with Champions League involvement, so the minimum they need is a last 8 place this time round, we have seen the best of them on the road in the AFC and given their record in Korea and that it increasingly looks like the Korean dominance in this even is coming to an end, they can get a result this evening. Only Ulsan made it to the last 8 in 2012 and this year, again only two of the four K-League teams made it through the knockout stage and JHM were fortunate IMO in that Urawa let slip a home game against them, where the Japanese side led and were totally dominant at the break. 1.25 units Kashiwa Reysol level ball 2.20 asian line/Ibramarket.
There is a standout 2.50 draw no bet with Paddy Power if any of you can bet that, obviously my selection is at 2.20.

Europa League Final: Chelsea-Benfica

If you have been a subscriber for two months or more, you should probably have a little outright on Benfica at 26.0-29.0 ( see below)and I know that many of you have, in terms of the email, we have also closed out some profit on that and have Benfica for +circa 18 points and Chelsea +circa 4 . You have the option to balance that out/ close things up further by betting Chelsea to win the cup outright, the choice is yours. Personally, I will probably do so for another couple of units. This is now 1.82 with Ibramarket/asian line btw.

For the rest of this preview, I only want to discuss the match as I see it now, regardless of our outright position.

Chelsea know they will be playing Champions League football next season, they would still like to finish third in the Premier League and go straight into the group stage and to do that, might need to beat Everton at Stamford Bridge on Sunday, but the pressure is no longer so intense and I am 100% certain their focus will be entirely on the match in Amsterdam this evening.

They must be close to running on empty now, with this, their 36th start of 2013 and 15th in just 47 days, including trips to Russia, Switzerland and three matches against the two Manchester clubs. A gruelling schedule and they were already softened up prior to that run by a pair of games against Brentford (!), however, it is hard to argue that they are not in better mental shape coming into the match than Benfica, for whom May has been a bit of a disaster.

They entered the month holding a four point lead at the top of the Portugese table and unbeaten all season domestically, but first they dropped two points at home to Estoril and at the weekend conceded a late, late winner to Porto and have effectively dumped the title into the lap of their bitter rival. They is a major psychological blow and for a team already exhausted according to coach Jorge Jesus, it will be very tough for them to pick themselves up off the ground just a few days later and beat one of Europe's best. Not impossible, but tough.

They will be without Maxi Pereira (41-3-6 all comps) at right back, they look far more vunerable without him and Lorenzo Malgarejo on the other flank, is something of a liability, this gives the Blues an attacking edge and Ashley Cole and Cesar Azpilicueta could have a field day. However, Chelsea look set to be without Terry, Hazard, Ba and Mikel and are short of options. They have not impressed defensively in Europe and failed to keep a cleansheet in seven Europa League games and with Cardoza, Lima, Rodrigo, Salvio etc all giving Benfica a big offensive threat, it is tough not to see goals in this.  Benfica have also conceded in their last four in the competition and three in the league. 1.25 units "over" 2.5 goals 2.17 asian line/Ibramarket .

Scottish Premier League: Kilmarnock- Hibernian

Only time for minimal notes, sorry. I like goals strongly here, there is not a huge amount to play for (7th place) and I think it will have very much an end of season/ nothing to play for atmosphere. The original match was abandoned when a supporter died in the crowd and this rearranged fixture is being targeted as one to celebrate his life and we can expect it to be played out accordingly. SPL matches have shown an increase in goals for the 5th season running and this match traditionally provides entertainment, with both teams scoring in 11 of the last 13 h2h fixtures, including the last six at Rugby Park, five of which have gone over. We can also expect Hibs to take things easy with a Cup Final later this month, which will add to the friendly nature and there was even talk of top scorer Leigh Griffiths being rested, but the Clydesdale Bank Player of the Year has scored 28 goals in all comps this season and is desperate to reach 30 and begging to play, which also indicates goals are on the cards, one or two this evening would also give him a shot at the SPL "golden boot".1.5 units "over" 2.75 goals 2.20 asian line.

Good Luck.

Europa League: ( WRITTEN FEBRUARY 14TH)

The last ten runnings of the Europa League/ UEFA Cup have seen seven winners from the Iberian Peninsula, five Spanish winners and two Portugese, they also supplied four losing finalists between them and all four semi finalists last year, the other three winners came from Eastern Europe, with two Russian winners and one from the Ukraine.
The Eastern teams are at a disadvantage early, coming off their winter break, but once we are in mid/late March, the pendulum swings the other way and they are fresher and at their peak, when others are beginning to tire.

This says as much about how these countries view the competition than anything else, they always show it respect and want to do well. Italian teams have a terrible record and since it was renamed the Europa League, only one has got past the Round of 32 and they lost in the Round of 16.

There are three Serie A teams left in the competition, Lazio, Napoli and Inter, but all have other major objectives for the season and I would offer a word of caution about all of them, not to say that they cannot win/ progress, just that I doubt that they are overly bothered.

The final is in Amsterdam this year and we can expect Ajax to be very motivated, but they might well have to see off Chelsea in the round of 16..

Atletico Madrid and Levante are the only two Spanish teams remaining and are drawn to face each other in the Round of 16, Atletico are looking to win for the third time in four years and given their league position, 12 points behind Barcelona and 11 clear of the fourth placed team, they already look assured of a Champions League spot for next season and I see no reason why they will not again be fully focused and this looks a decent draw for them, they have to be favourites IMO and 8.0 is a perfectly fair price, although a little skinny for my liking in a 32 runner race.

Despite facing a difficult tie with Bayer Leverkusen and going toe to toe with Porto for the domestic title, Benfica keep catching my eye at 29.0 in the outright market, they would play either Dynamo Kiev or Bordeaux next and I would favour them to beat either. They are unbeaten domestically, 14-4-0 and were a little hard done by in the Champions League. They look committed to this and all the big guns have travelled and they do have some very impressive weapons ....

Benfica: Artur Moraes, Paulo Lopes ,Bruno Varela, Melgarejo, Maxi Pereira, Luisinho, Luisão, Garay, Roderick Miranda , Jardel , André Almeida, Ola John, Enzo Perez, Salvio, Matic, Nicolás Gaitán, Urreta , André Gomes, Rodrigo, Lima, Cardozo.

They can field a starting eleven full of internationals and have a very nice mixture of experience and exciting young talent. Garay, Perez and Gaitan were all in the Argentine squad for the recent friendly in Stockholm, Salvio was in the squad for the previous international and is the youngest of the quartet. They have the class to go deep in this if they wish and the squad they have taken to Germany looks a statement of intent.
Leverkusen host Augsburg on Saturday afternoon, what is it with the Bundesliga ? Give them an extra day for goodness sake ! They are going to make some rotation between the two games of course, boss Sami Hyypiä admitted that and also that "a couple of our players have slight problems", refusing to give fiurther details. Almost four thousand visiting supporters have tickets for the game, which will make for a very good atmosphere, if pushed, I like the visitors with the handicap start, but must admit that +0.25 ball at sub 2.0 is not my favourite quote and if we are taking the outright anyway, I am happy to stick with that. 1 unit Benfica to win Europa League outright 26.0 + , there is bigger in a place or two.