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Wednesday August 21st
A lot of games today that should be fun to watch, but they might not offer so much from a betting perspective.
In the Premier League, Chelsea host Aston Villa and that "suspect" home defence might face more of a challenge than the one posed by Hull City at the weekend, but the visitors might have some residual mental scars left over from their 8-0 hammering here just before Christmas and that would be a concern, especially if they conceded early. Villa had a pretty good record here before that and had scored three or more goals on three of their previous six visits. Christian Benteke has already shown he is set to continue this season as he finished the last and Gabriel Agbonlahor looks back to his best, is pushing for an England recall and has the pace to destroy any defence and his runs from deep are very tough to pick up. Both teams to score at circa 2.0 was an option here and 5.50-6.0 for Villa to score two or more was just as tempting, but I will pass "officially".
There was nothing to overly interest me in any of the Champions League competitions, Arsenal need to bounce back and at least silence the critics for a day or two and many of you will be surprised that we are not getting involved in the AFC games, especially as newsletter favourite Guangzhou Evergrande are in action, but I am going to wait until the second legs, as the odds look about right today. However and as we know, there is always an however,in their four home matches this season, Evergrande have scored ten goals, but only three before the break (twice 0-0 at the half) and they do tend to have more of a cutting edge in the second period after Marcello Lippi has worked his half time magic. Opponents Lekhwiya Doha have conceded five road goals in the competition, just one before the break, so all the signs are there that we might see more second half action in this one. ***** see foot of the email.
The Spanish Super Cup first leg between Atletico Madrid and Barcelona also promises much. The hosts did us a big favour on Sunday and notes from that are reproduced at the foot of the email. Atletico are in good shape and I hope they will try to enjoy this and have a go at Barce, the visitors caught everyones attention with a 7-0 demolition of Levante at the weekend and they also scored seven or more three other times in pre season, so offensively, they look in good shape, although, to be honest, they did not beat much ! Before anyone says Santos, the Brazilian side were mentally "still on the plane" when the two teams met. But they have struggled over the last 12 months against teams that are not scared of them, Bayern beat them 2-0 in pre season and Real Madrid have scored two or more goals in 7 of the last 8 meetings, although I do accept that those "derby"fixtures have a life of their own. Atletico have also scored against the Catalan giants in 9 of the last 10 h2h meetings here , averaging 1.7 per game and in 7 of 10 in Barcelona. Despite their star names, Barce do have a small squad and already missing Carles Puyol, Ibrahim Afellay and Isaac Cuenca, they are left with 18-19 outfield players, one of whom, Adriano, is suspended. At any time, they are an injury or red card away from struggling with numbers and are not exactly flush with defensive options, this is not a huge problem tonight but with road games at Malaga and Valencia up next in La Liga, they can ill afford any knocks. Anyway, to win this cup and it is usually treated seriously in Spain, Atletico will need a result tonight and to get it, they will probably need to score twice (at least) and 3.0 -3.25 is a fair price for them to do so and if you can find that, then I would suggest taking it for 0.75 units. Many companies also offer this option "in running".
MLS :
This full match preview is only available by email..... gowi8@btinternet.com
Next email is Thursday @10.00 UK time.
Good Luck.
La Liga: Sevilla -Atletico Madrid
These are two of the favourites for third place in La Liga, all of the major contenders for the "best of the rest" title have lost key players, but I would argue that Atletico have suffered far less than the others. They lost Radamel Falcao (34-28-1) to Monaco of course, but have otherwise kept the rest of their squad in tact and look to have spent the huge transfer fee received well. Atletico knew Falcao was on his way for much of last season, so could put plans in place and in the four matches he missed (all on the road), they performed well enough, averaging 1.75 points per game, which compares favourably with their average from their other away starts.They added hugely experience central defender Martín Demichelis from Malaga, very promising 20 yo Léo Baptistão who had 7 goals and 7 assists, as a secondary striker for Rayo Vallecano in his first La Liga campaign and David Villa (who has scored 253 goals for club and country from way less than 500 appearances) from Barcelona, i n the summer.All three are in the squad today, along with Adrian, Garcia,Koke, Turan and Costa etc who like most of the squad, have been eyed up by big clubs all across Europe. Only real absence today is suspended fringe midfielder Tiago (22-2-0), they have a terrific squad, definitely third best in Spain and they are looking forward to a return to Champions League football.
Sevilla have had a real change of guard and sold defensive midfielder Gary Medel (32-6-3), striker Álvaro Negredo (36-25-4) and winger Jesús Navas (37-0-7) to the Premier League, these are pretty much irreplaceable and the first three names on the team sheet. Coach Unai Emery has brought in Kevin Gameiro from PSG , Carlos Bacca from Club Brugge and Vicente Iborra from Levante and they could all be good business, but combined, they cost less than the fee received for Navas alone and despite some promise shown in pre season and the Europa League, they look considerably weaker this season. Not just that, but they have had to completely change their style of football, without their width and big target man and it will be a bit of a learning curve for them. Centre back Daniel Carriço, winger José Antonio Reyes (26-4-8), right back Cicinho (27-1-2) and midfielder Piotr Trochowski are all injured and left back Fernando Navarro (35-0-1) and central defender Cala suspended.
Atletico look in much better shape than Sevilla, they came out firing on all cylinders last season (winning eight of their first nine) and will want to lay down a staement of intent post Falcao. 1.75 units Atletico Madrid level ball 1.94 asian line/Ibramarket.
Atletico: Aranzubia, Courtois, Godín, Filipe Luís, Manquillo, Juanfran, Insúa, Miranda, Demichelis, Mario, Koke, Raúl García, Arda, Cristian Rodríguez, Gabi, Óliver, Adrián, David Villa, Diego Costa, Léo Baptistão
***** Guangzhou Evergrande and Lekhwiya Doha were 0-0 at the break and as my brief notes indicated, the Chinese champions again stepped up the pressure in the second half, easing home 2-0. It was possible to back them -1.25 ball 2.47 at the half, as opposed to sub 2.0 giving up a quarter ball more pre kick off. This will not count in our statistics, but as I asked you last week in relation to the Brazilian match previews, do you think getting this kind of information/analysis on a daily basis will make you a better/more successful gambler ?
It was a rhetorical question btw as we all know the answer !
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