clubgowi Thursday newsletter..............
Email #2 @ 16.00 looking at the Saturday J-League fixtures.
Saturday 14/03
Email #1 will be sent @ 09.00 and will preview the English Premier and Football League games.
Email #2 @ 11.00 will round up all the other football action.
Email #2 @ 13.00 will focus on the days later matches.
In terms of today, that is Gamba Osaka, Urawa Reds (who have both played two AFC games and a Super Cup contest, which the champions won 2-0) and Kashiwa Reysol who played "just" the two Champions League games including winning 5-1 at home in midweek. Most of you know I love Gamba, but they host FC Tokyo whom I see as a team with big potential and this is a match I want to watch with a view to the future and without financial involvement, I know, weird eh !! If forced to choose it would have to be Gamba and the odds are fair, but this is one to learn something from and I will pass. Urawa played away to the J2 champions on opening day last year, beating Gamba 1-0 and again travel to the top promoted team, Shonan running away with the title and amassing 101 points and they might do a Gamba , but I doubt that, it is a big step up and they might need a game or two to adjust. The visitors have lost all three starts so far and really do not want to go 4/4, they also have good knowledge of a couple of key signings of Shonan, with them being former Urawa players. I have no need for, or interest in, circa 2.10 for the away win, but if we can find 2.30 "in running" ( this is the late game....10.00 UK time kick off btw) and they are are not already ahead and we are playing 11 v 11, I would suggest 1.25 units.
Reysol would have made the betting criteria, but again, are playing the worst possible team , with their coach from the last five years Nelsinho, who has had more clubs than Tiger Woods ( this is his 31st managerial appointment !), joining opponents Vissel Kobe, he knows more about the visitors than any man alive and will surely have a game plan and some tricks up his sleeve. He is very agressive, you might remember I spoke last season about how Gamba complaiined that the coach, his staff and players were intimidating match officials, he is probably just what Kobe need, they are looking to break into the big time and showed potential last season, top 3 after a third of the season, before fading away at the end. Nelsinho has strengthened adding options to an already good strike force, but making the defence which gave up almost 1.5 goals per game his priority. Odd one, if Reysol were playing any other bottom half team, aside from Nagoya, I would probably have backed them and likewise, I would have sided with Kobe if they were meeting any team without the fitness edge. Interesting game, but one I will have to pass.
Zenit St Petersburg- Torino
The visitors got the attention of the footballing world on Friday night when they put four goals past Bayern Munich , led by an amazing high energy performance from Kevin de Bruyne, who scored twice and also contributed his 11th assist of the season. Bayern had only conceded four goals previously all season through 17 league starts and whilst most teams might have sat back and basked in the glory of that huge win, the Wolves got busy and in a massive statement of intent, completed the signing of André Schürrle from Chelsea for circa 30m €. That has left everyone in no doubt about how VfL see themseleves over the next year or two, a very big player in both domestic and European terms. They also made sure that de Bruyne was also left in doubt about how highly they value him and an already lengthy and lucrative contract is about to be increased and extended until 2020, which I view as a clever move with a new "star" arriving on the scene.
Schürrle is apparently going to take part in a short workout with the rest of the squad this morning, but is not expected to make his debut until Saturday, but his arrival is a really big deal in Germany and after his success in Brazil and West London, he brings with him a winning mentality and will force the other squad members to up their game still further and looks incredibly good business. It is going to be very difficult for them to close that eight point gap on Bayern at the top of the table, but I feel they will want to give it a go and staying within a single digit of the Bavarian giants would be a major achievement and closing it, offer so much for next season. They are currently seven points clear of BMG in third and if they could really push on through the next 3-4 weeks, really cement a Champions League spot early and then look at other targets, which perhaps they are already doing. We have spoken a lot about the Europa League and how the competion, and the last year or two of the UEFA Cup, has been dominated by teams from Eastern Europe and the Iberian Peninsula, but we have no Porto or Benfica this year and the round of 32 and 16 is always testing for the Eastern teams coming off such a long break, Villarreal and Sevilla look decent representatives for Spain, but are both involved in what looks certain to be a season long battle with Valencia for fourth, elsewhere , there are a lot of teams who have been priced up on name alone. If the Wolves can find a way past Sporting this month, I am sure that we will see several of those "names" drop out and Wolfsburg might be in position to let their focus switch to a European title. There is still some 21.0 around for Wolfsburg to win the Europa League, even bigger in a place or two and if you can find it, or close, I suggest we try 1 unit for now, we can take a closer look at this competition after the round of 32 ties .
Good Luck.
Dortmund taught Zenit a bit of a lesson in the first leg , they came out flying, raced into a two goal lead inside five minutes and never let the home side settle, it was a hugely professional performance and one which cost home boss Luciano Spalletti his job. It is rare to be replaced between legs, but they wanted a replacement in as soon as possible and that man is Luís André de Pina Cabral e Villas-Boas, AVB to you and me. Spalletti is well respected and will not be out of work long, he has already been touted for the Tottenham job, although quite what Spurs fans will think of the coach who has been replaced by the one they recently sacked taking over at WHL, is anyone's guess, not much I suspect !
Ahead of the first leg I wrote ...
When they made it to the last 16 two years ago, they beat a strong Benfica side 3-2 at home (it could have been more), but the away goals were too much and they were always up against it in the return leg. It is very hard to see them upsetting Dortmund over the two legs, this is just the wrong time of year for them, they have not played a competitive match in months and their season doesn't restart until next month. However, they are incredibly motivated today and will be busting a gut to at least ensure they go to Dortmund still alive in the tie."
AVB will have had no time with the team or input in this game and will not actually meet the squad, or be officially presented until tomorrow, but the players will surely be out to impress the new coach.
There was no immediate improvement results wise, for the caretaker boss at the weekend , with Zenit losing 1-0 in Moscow to CSKA, but they were denied by the woodwork early and a wonder save late and deserved something from the game, after a very strong first half performance.
This tie is over of course, even 2-0 is not enough for Zenit , but they will strip fitter now after three competitive games and Danny (17-10-7 Premier Liga), Aleksandr Kerzhakov (10-4-2 Champions League) and goalkeeper Igor Akinfeev are all available to start now, giving them greater and fitter options. I never feel the high pressing game of Dortmund which unsettled Zenit in the first leg is as effective at home in Europe and the hosts will be mindful of games ahead and we have discussed recently the pragmatic approach of most German clubs and coaches. They are not going to get any extra out of a 2-0, as opposed to 1-0 win, is what I mean. I do feel Zenit will score tonight, so Borussia would need three to cover the handicap and with games against Hannover and closest challenger for second place ,Schalke ,to play in the next six days, I do not feel they will be exactly busting a gut to do so.
They have one or two players returning from knocks, others who cannot afford to pick up yellow cards and for a major player, do not have a lot of top quality cover in certain areas, so could ill afford injuries. I expect a fairly cautious approach from them, so, probably 2-0 after six minutes this time !! I like the visitors with the handicap start.
They restored some pride with a 2-1 win in Germany, but later in the season, blew a lead at the top of Premier Liga with two rounds remaining and lost out in the title race to CSKA by a single point, which meant an early CL start this year. They lost the first leg 1-0 in Cyprus, after dominating the entire game, despite playing the last 25 minutes + with ten men, they won the shot count 22-3 , were denied by the woodwork and on another day, might, perhaps should, have won, by 2-3 goals. Now they need to turn this tie on it's head at home and they should certainly strip fitter, after not only the first leg, but also opening their domestic campaign with a 4-0 road win over Arsenal Tula at the weekend and I think it was very important that key offensive players Salomon Rondon and Hulk both scored, as they will be the duo expected to fire them to a resounding victory this evening. Italian international defender Domenico Criscito scored the other two and Danny will have felt aggrieved he did not get on the team sheet after going close and also hitting the woodwork. That was promising and one goal ,goals are like money, the first (million) is always the hardest (!), should be followed by a second and if the visitors can be forced out of their game plan and defensive mind set, the space will open up and others can follow. Huge gulf in class and I do not conside the loss of suspended Axel Witsel to be overly important, following his dismissal in Cyprus. AEL are not a big player, even in purely Cypriot terms and have only won one league title in 46 years, or trophy of any sort in 25, they are still a couple of weeks away from their domestic campaign starting and there is an advantage now in terms of real match fitness for Zenit and a massive one talent wise. I do have to admit to a huge soft spot for the hosts, GOWI ,as it was at the time, followers won huge on them in that UEFA Cup win and whilst it was a long time ago, I always feel I have a good understanding of where we are with them and despite the loss in the first leg, I feel they look decent this season.
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