Champions League: Barcelona- Paris St Germain
I previewed last week's first leg and those notes are reproduced at the foot of this email. We went for goals there in a match up which have produced plenty of thrills and excitement in recent meetings and once again they came, with Barcelona running out, it has to be said, pretty comfortable 3-1 winners. That was as close to a vintage Barce performance as we have seen for some time and whilst we do have to remember that PSG were missing a lot of key players, the Parisians have not exactly travelled to the Catalan capital in overly confident mood, they need three goals to give themselves a chance and if they open up and really go for it, they run the risk of getting carved open and then potentially facing a really humiliating defeat. I suspect they will not overly worry about the scoreline from the first leg, the tie was basically lost in Paris, the visitors can play their natural game and see where it takes them, I certainly do not expect a gung ho approach, unless they are 2-0 up with 10 minutes to play.
On the plus side , offensively, they get Zlatan Ibrahimovic and Marco Verratti back for today, Thiago Silva misses out at the back along with Serge Aurier. Verratti will give them far more of a presence in midfield and both he and Zlatan already have goals against Barcelona from the group stage this season and will certainly give the host's backline more to think about this evening, PSG have scored in both visits here , six times in the three home meetings, they will be able to put more pressure on Barce out wide tonight, especially on the left, which they overloaded with success agianst Chelsea in the previous round and pose a massive threat aerially and I would be more than a little surprised if there was not at least one goal in this for PSG.
However, none of the "over" match goal lines make any appeal, given that at some stage, we can expect Barcelona to look to close this down, they have a derby game with Espanyol at the weekend with the title race still undecided and with at least two more Champions League games and a domestic cup final left to play. A draw would not overly surprise, that would allow the visitors to leave with heads held high and Barce to progress with a degree of comfort and I will suggest 1.25 units Paris St Germain +1.25 goals 2.05 asian line/Sportmarket.
Given that he is still suspended domestically and so will not wish to leave anything on the pitch, on what might be his last ever match at the Camp Nou and that he has been very influential in his four games against Barce in the competion, Zlatan Ibrahimovic is big in a lot of places in the anytime goalsscorer market and if you can find 3.0 +, there is as high as 3.75 in a place or two, I would suggest 1.25 units, for him to record a hat-trick of goals ( scoring in all three away games) in this fixture.
Good Luck.
Champions League: PSG- Barcelona (Written April 15th)
This will be the fifth Champions League meeting between these two in two years, both teams have scored in all four, three have produced four or more goals and Barcelona have won only one and I can see this playing out quite similarly. The visitors know the value of an away goal (or two) which was how the 2013 quarter final was decided and we spoke about this ahead of the last meeting, which took place in the Catalan capital back in December ......
I do not think that PSG are scared of Barce and that is half the battle, they won the home leg 3-2 with Zlatan sidelined and without a goal from Cavani and were perhaps unfortunate to lose in the 2012-13 quarter finals to the Catalan giants on the away goals rule, so six goals for them across the three games, but equally important is/was the confidence and belief gained from the first two meetings, that they can compete against the very best. They were equally unfortunate to go out to Chelsea, again on the away goal rule and again at the last eight stage last season. They are getting closer and closer and I see this not only as chance to finish top for them, but another opportunity to really test themselves against top level opponents and to try and find away to score a goal or two against them on the road. In the last two CL campaigns only 3 of the 28 teams that have won knockout round games have failed to score in the away tie and two of them did not need to (already had a big lead), it is almost a given that you need an away goal and in the really big games, often two, you just do not win anything in modern football, without playing attacking football, even if that is done on the counter, you still have to have that mindset. This is definitely something we will return to in February.
This is not a knockout game of course, but is similar and hard to see how PSG will get their desired result without scoring at least one and probably two goals. They arrive more or less at full strength, Barce are missing Dani Alves at right back, he has missed a couple of CL games over the years, but usually dead rubbers, so better to look at La Liga fixtures, they have won 4 of the last eight he has missed ( we are talking Barcelona remember !) , dropping points to Levante, Sociedad, Granada and Malaga and you have to conclude that is under par. One of those wins was the most recent, at Almeria , where they went with Adriano on the right and were 1-0 down with 17 minutes remaining, previously in a 0-0 draw with Malaga it was the more natural right back Douglas, but that didn't work and he was removed half way through the second half for tactical reasons, so clearly, a problem area and one the visitors can exploit. 3-2/4-2/2-2 something like that.
That ended 3-1, PSG scored early and had several really good opportunities to add to that, that was not as important a fixture as tonight, both had already qualified from the group, but I suspect the Parisians would have taken heart and a lot of knowledge from their performances over the two group games and definitely know that they can score against Barce. Today they will have to do so without Zlatan Ibrahimovic and also Serge Aurier and Marco Verratti, all to suspension, plus Thiago Motta to injury. Very far from ideal of course, but they beat Barce 3-2 here in the group stage without Zlatan and Aurier( who has had an injury hit season and not played that much in any case) and they have been brave this season when similar short handed and with their backs to the wall. They were missing more players for the first leg with Chelsea and pushed the Blues back for almost the entire game, they scored the decisive second goal at Stamford Bridge with time running out and only ten men on the pitch and head coach Laurent Blanc has proved that he will go for it when he feels the time is right, regardless of who is sidelined or on the pitch.
We last spoke about Barce just a couple of days ago ahead of their trip to Sevilla ......
I don't like to oppose the Big 2 ( 3 ?) in Spain too often, they just do not lose enough games to make it viable. but I cannot resist it today. Barcelona play PSG twice and the 4th and 5th best teams in La Liga all inside the next ten days and with the knowledge that they will stay top of the table regardless of what happens this evening, a normal club would be forgiven for perhaps letting their focus dip a little for the trip to Seville. But of course, the Catalan giants are no normal team.
The hosts are 5th, just a single point adrift of Valencia and they will give everything to secure what still appears a single remaining Champions League spot. They are 11-4-0 at home and have conceded a league low 7 goals here this season, they have actually not lost at home for over 14 months, since ( yes, you guessed it !) Barcelona last visited. Sevilla led there, but the visitors eventually eased home 4-1 in terrible conditions.
I feel the hosts are much improved since and whilst still a work in progress, are getting better on almost a game by game basis and I do not feel we can say the same about the top 3, who have come back to the pack, or at least the next two a little. the gap has lessened.
Sevilla have kept seven clean sheets in their last eight home games and whilst wins have been few and far between ( still better than most, with 3 victories in 10 home starts), they have scored in each of their last 10 starts against Barce and Real.
It feels like Barce's recent form has dipped a little, at least defensively and they have conceded in 13 of their last 22 starts and one goal this evening for the hosts, might even be enough for them this time round given how much better they look defensively. I would not rule out the home win @ 6.0
They took an early 2-0 lead there, but had to eventually settle for a share of the spoils, those vulnerability issues against teams who are prepared to attack them remain and they are without Dani Alves tonight as they were for the last meeting and I have highlighted ( see above) the notes about him and Barce's relatively poor record in his absence. The visitors know how this works and the value of an away goal, they will surely be looking for a couple of goals tonight as given the missing players, this might be too good an opportunity to miss, even 2-2 gives them so many options for the second leg. Hosts are going to have to stay with them and have proved that they can do so even without key players, they scored three here in the last h2h meeting without Zlatan and both goals against Chelsea at Stamford Bridge came after his dismissal. I feel they are going to need two goals this evening to keep this tie alive, as I see it almost impossible for them to stop the visitors from doing likewise.
